Climate Change: Considerations for Geographic Combatant Commands PKSOI Paper | страница 20

USSOUTHCOM Response to Climate
Change Risks
Secretary of Defense Hagel invokes Clausewitz’s
assertion that though some uncertainty remains with
the state of current climate change predictions, planners must move forward “in a mere twilight.” 37 The
IPCC’s latest Summary for Policymakers (SPM) report
sheds additional light on evaluating the “climatic drivers” as causes for the resultant risk effects of interest to
a GCC evaluating the overall AOR risk. As discussed
above, the SPM and Taylor’s Caribbean-specific study
detail “adaptation issues and prospects” that offer options for increasing the resiliency of potentially affected areas.38 The work of a GCC to evaluate a range of
options as to “how” to support partner nations in their
efforts to increase climate change resiliency needs to
be informed by the White House’s Presidential Policy
on Development (PPD6) that “raise[s] the importance
of development in national security policy decisionmaking.”39 While USAID is the USG lead for development, climate change adaptation initiatives are one
area where DoD has the opportunity to support this
whole of government effort. Incorporation of this guidance will widen the aperture beyond reactive disaster
relief and foster greater GCC involvement in the proactive elements of development while adhering to the
PPD6 guidance that the U.S. government “elevate[s]
development as a central pillar of our national security policy, equal to diplomacy and defense.”40 GCCs
should work with DoS/USAID experts to focus on resiliency measures most useful to particular nations in
terms of their population and economic security. The
National Intelligence Community’s (IC’s) assessment
on “Water Threats” concluded that “states with water

11