» WITH BOTH BREXIT AND Covid-19 issues still very much with us , 2021 will continue to be a challenge for all businesses . Both the ‘ State of the Trade ’ survey from CAB and the recent CPA ( Construction Products Association ) forecasts do offer cautious hope for the year ahead .

CAB ’ s 2020 final quarter ‘ State of the Trade Survey ’ showed a distinct caution within the fenestration industry compared to the wider construction industry . CAB ’ s survey is taken from its membership and the results benchmarked against the wider construction industry by the CPA . Normally CAB members fare much better , or are more optimistic than that of the general construction industry , but the last report of 2020 offers an interesting insight .

Members historic sales , which reflects the fourth quarter 2020 against the third quarter 2020 only 36 % of the CAB membership , on balance , said that their sales had increased compared to 85 % on balance of the wider construction industry . Looking forward to the first quarter 2021 on balance only 32 % of CAB members expected sales to increase , whilst 48 % on balance of the wider construction industry expected sales to increase . The

change could be reflecting the delay in which the supply of aluminium fenestration follows some time after building starts on site . The year ended with a net balance of 14 % of CAB members suggesting that sales volumes had reduced in the previous year .

The main driving factor for CAB members remains the costs of materials and obviously the exchange rate , as much of the UK ’ s aluminium is imported . Looking forward as you would expect 62 % of CAB members suggested that the demand for product would be the likely constraining factor in business for the next 12 months , reflecting the conservative figure in both reported historic and expected sales forecasts .

Looking at capacity utilisation and companies that are operating at over 90 % of capacity , less than 50 % of CAB members suggested they were running at this level and there does not seem to be an expected improvement in the year ahead . The wider construction industry is faring a little better , but the restrictions imposed by the Covid-19 outbreak continue to make business difficult for most .

On balance 27 % of members have indicated that labour costs during the last year have increased and on balance 64 % of members

expect that there will be further increases in cost in the year ahead . Both historic and expected costs remain higher than that of the wider construction industry .

Encouraging to see is the capital investment from CAB members in the year ahead , on net balance across all capital assets , is set to double in the year ahead suggesting confidence in the coming months .

Overall , the CPA ’ s main scenario anticipates that construction output in 2021 will rise by 14.0 % with the largest growth rates in 2021 expected to be in infrastructure at 32 %, public housing rm & i at 21 % and industrial construction by 19 %. The CPA ’ s main scenario for 2022 anticipates that construction output rising by a further 4.9 % with the largest growth rates expected to be in public housing of 10.0 % and industrial construction of 8.5 %. Obviously these figures are based on combating the Covid -19 virus as one of the main restrictions we currently face .

In fenestration circles , whilst commercial new build and

refurbishment outlooks may be a little cautious , there is a possibility that the home improvement sector could bounce back after the current lockdown as it did for the first lockdown in 2020 . With homeowners looking to spend capital , capital not spent on holidays , in improving their homes and property , these improvements often include replacement windows and doors . Whilst still far from the most widely used fenestration material in the UK today , aluminium continues to grow and is arguably the material of choice for the homeowner given its affordability .

Published quarterly , the state of the market survey is open to CAB members to contribute and offers businesses a unique insight to the fenestration sector . Information is regularly updated on the CAB website at www . c-a-b . org . uk . For Association Membership enquiries , please contact Jessica Dean at the CAB offices by email jessica . dean @ c-a-b . org . uk or telephone 01453 828851 .