China's Belt and Road Initiative: Risk Outlook China's Belt and Road Risk Outlook | 页面 4

INTRODUCTION
THE BRI: SYMPHONY OR SOLO?
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is
music to Beijing's ears. He Yaifei, the
Vice Minister of China’s Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, has waxed lyrical in
describing the initiative as “Not a solo,
but a chorus”. He is echoed by Wang
Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, who has
referred to a “symphony” of all
relevant parties. Economically speaking, China hopes to
find new outlets for its hottest industries
- coal, steel and solar are all key to BRI
projects, for example - and to use its
vast foreign reserves to ease ties to the
USD, thereby strengthening the RMB.
Beijing also hopes to boost overall GDP
and reduce regional economic disparity
by targeting China’s Western region.
But there should be no mistake: 89%
of contracts on BRI projects go to
Chinese firms, often advancing China’s
interests considerably more than
those of their partners. Beijing is doing
what it can to play the orchestra, so to
speak. From a security perspective, by
improving transport and infrastructure
in Xinjiang and in the countries on
China's borders, China also aims to
tackle the ‘three evils’ as defined by the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation:
terrorism, separatism and extremism.
Initially conceived as the slightly less
mellifluous Silk Road Economic Belt and
the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, the
roots of what we know as the BRI can
be found in President Xi Jinping’s
speech in Kazakhstan in September
2013. He called for the creation of a
“Silk Road Economic Belt” that could
link East and West. In trade and energy terms, China hopes
to secure access to key commodities in
Central Asia, lock-in oil imports from the
Middle East and secure pipelines in
South and Central Asia as well as
Russia’s Far East, enabling China to
mitigate its ongoing energy security
concerns and reliance on sea-lanes
controlled by the U.S. Navy. 
Now, the BRI in all its glory covers over
900 projects across 60 countries, to
the tune of more than $1 trillion. By
launching the BRI and more recently
by embedding it in China’s
constitution, President Xi Jinping’s
administration hopes to achieve a
number of aims. As far as symphonies go, the BRI is a
hugely complex composition, widely
known but rarely examined in depth.
This report aims to be your guide to
the risks and opportunities most likely to
affect the initiative in 2018 and beyond.
We hope you enjoy the performance.
Nick, James, Joanna & Qi
A GRI SPECIAL REPORT