China's Belt and Road Initiative: Risk Outlook China's Belt and Road Risk Outlook

CONTENTS INTRODUCTION PART 1: TRADE ROUTES The Russian routes • p4 The Trans-Caspian route • p5 The Black Sea and beyond • p6 Multimodal route outlook • p6 PART 2: ENERGY SECURITY INVESTMENTS Natural gas • p7 Oil strategy • p8 Energy outlook • p8 PART 3: REGIONAL OUTLOOKS Southeast Asia BRI's pivot Southeast • p9 Beijing’s Interest in the Sea • p9 South Asia China’s port investments • p10 Backlash from BRI Partners • p11 Interests in Iran • p11 Africa Securing waterways • p12 Egypt at the centre • p13 Kenya holds the key • p13 Note to the Reader: The articles in this publication also appear on the GRI site with hyperlinks to source material, in case further reading is desired.

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