China Policy Journal Volume 1, Number 1, Fall 2018 | Page 147

China Policy Journal with open-source data: (1) the firms that have committed three or more violations, or received three or more specific penalties (i.e., fines, suspension, or shutdown); (2) the firms that are subjected to one-year interagency supervisions jointly conducted by the EPBs and Bureaus of Discipline Inspection (BODI) at the municipal or provincial level (gua pai du ban); and (3) the firms are included in the Environmental Noncompliance Blacklist (ENCB) disclosed by the Guangzhou EPB. The ENCB is an important supplement to the formal regulatory system focusing on large pollution sources, as it strengthens law enforcement on the small-sized polluters in scattered locations on the periphery of cities and the areas where the reach of state regulation is scarce. (More details of the ENCB and its implementation in Guangzhou will be provided in Section 4.) Applying the criteria to our dataset, we have identified 65 out of the 250 polluting firms as chronic offenders. Among them, 37 were SMSs, mostly large state-owned enterprises (SOEs), monitored directly by the MEP. The remaining 28 cases were mainly small-sized plants subjected to prioritized monitoring by local EPBs and included in the ENCB for enhanced law enforcement. There are at least 18 blacklisted factories included in our dataset and, by the time of writing this paper, none of these polluting firms have been removed from the prioritization lists. 2.2. Analytical Framework To analyze the formal and informal enforcement activities and how they might reverse chronic noncompliance, we adopt the framework based on the economic calculation of costs and benefits responding to enforcement activities, as explained in the introduction section. The benefits of noncompliance are mainly the saved costs to comply with certain environmental laws and policies, such as those for mitigating emissions. The costs of noncompliance are the expected penalty, resulting of two factors namely, the probability of catching noncompliance and the penalty for noncompliance. A key research question is how to effectively deter environmental noncompliance. With different data and methodology, other studies have concluded that detection probability is more important (Grogger 1991), or that punishment severity is more important (Friesen 2009), or that both are important (Earnhart and Friesen 2012). Environmental noncompliance is one of the most important causes of China’s current environmental crises (Xu 2011, 2013). Noncompliance cannot be deterred without a high-enough proportion of cases being caught and punished (Guo et al. 2014; Xu 2011). Catching noncompliance by firms is predominantly reliant on effective techniques of monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) designed, deployed, and executed by government regulatory agencies at various levels. However, the positive correlation between the deployment of MRV techniques and 144