Campus Review Volume 28 - Issue 9 | September 2018 | Page 19

industry & research campusreview.com.au hard to know what else they might be doing because they’re certainly not saying they’re going to go to TAFE. The proportion just expecting to finish Year 12 has increased, and that’s probably of some concern, I would think. How does that square in that more people are expecting to finish Year 12, yet less are expecting to go on to some form of tertiary education? I think it’s just saying that some kids simply plan on finishing. Some kids are still thinking that they will be able to just finish school and perhaps get a job, and not worry about going on to university. I don’t know how realistic that is, and maybe that’s something that careers counselling needs to pick up. How realistic is it that kids will find employment if they only have Year 12 qualifications? Do you have any comment on the TAFE expectation decrease as well? enrolments, we’re just asking about student expectations. And we don’t ask why they don’t aspire to something higher. I think in some cases, it’s just facing reality more than anything. It’s lower socioeconomic students perhaps looking at university courses and seeing that if they do that, then they start off work with a really big debt, which for kids from a low SES background is a lot more difficult to imagine doing than for kids from a high SES background. That’s why you end up with the difference between low SES and high SES in 2015: 34 per cent of low SES students compared to 76 per cent of high SES students expected to go to university. I think the fear of that debt is probably pretty large in kids’ minds, and for the others, maybe there are opportunities to do things by different pathways, other than going to university. It’s a little bit It’s an interesting decrease, and it will be interesting to try to find some reasons behind that. The decrease is in the proportion of kids wanting to do a TAFE diploma. So, whether the kids that are in Year 9 were saying that the TAFE diploma wasn’t the way to go, that they might as well go to university, or go into an apprenticeship or do something else, is an interesting question. There are also questions about whether it’s to do with the lack of TAFE funding and TAFE closing courses. It’s a bit hard to find exact reasons why this might have happened. So all in all, from these findings, you seem to think there’s cause for concern, especially given the differences between advantaged and disadvantaged students. I think that’s the problem. If there was a decline and it was equal, I don’t think I would have as much concern, but where we have such stark differences between, say, high and low SES, or Indigenous and non-Indigenous, then those things do worry me in terms of equity. How important are expectations in shaping a young person’s future? They’ve very important, because expectations to a great extent drive how much effort you put into things and how much engagement you have in your work. If your expectation is that you’ll finish school and not go to university, then what you study at school will be different than if you do want to go to university. Expectations are very important and can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Kids who don’t think they can go on to university probably won’t. If they expect to go on, they most likely will. Do you have any data to compare what happened to these kids who had varied expectations? Not at the moment, because these kids won’t have finished school yet. They were 15 in 2015, so they’ll be just finishing school this year or next year. There have been other studies that show that the two are linked, and that one does lead to the other, that expectations are reflected in what happens. Do you have any comment on the argument that there are already too many university graduates, and that some students aren’t suited to university, so not enrolling is actually better for them? I don’t have a problem with that. I don’t think all students need to go to university, but I do think it’s becoming apparent that all students do need some form of qualification. And it has been shown that students who go on to university and who gain a university degree are more likely to do better in terms of what they call the trifecta: health, wealth and happiness. Across all socioeconomic groups, the proportion of students who expect to go to university has decreased since 2003. If those things aren’t equitably distributed, there are problems in society. So, if it’s more likely that high SES, non- Indigenous metropolitan kids will go on to university than their peers in other groups, then there are equity issues that I think we need to look at. That’s the main problem as far as I see it. ■ 17