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hard to know what else they might be
doing because they’re certainly not saying
they’re going to go to TAFE.
The proportion just expecting to finish
Year 12 has increased, and that’s probably
of some concern, I would think.
How does that square in that more people
are expecting to finish Year 12, yet less
are expecting to go on to some form of
tertiary education?
I think it’s just saying that some kids
simply plan on finishing. Some kids
are still thinking that they will be able
to just finish school and perhaps get a
job, and not worry about going on to
university.
I don’t know how realistic that is, and
maybe that’s something that careers
counselling needs to pick up. How
realistic is it that kids will find employment
if they only have Year 12 qualifications?
Do you have any comment on the TAFE
expectation decrease as well?
enrolments, we’re just asking about
student expectations.
And we don’t ask why they don’t
aspire to something higher. I think in
some cases, it’s just facing reality more
than anything. It’s lower socioeconomic
students perhaps looking at university
courses and seeing that if they do that,
then they start off work with a really
big debt, which for kids from a low SES
background is a lot more difficult to
imagine doing than for kids from a high
SES background.
That’s why you end up with the
difference between low SES and
high SES in 2015: 34 per cent of low
SES students compared to 76 per cent
of high SES students expected to go to
university.
I think the fear of that debt is probably
pretty large in kids’ minds, and for the
others, maybe there are opportunities
to do things by different pathways, other
than going to university. It’s a little bit
It’s an interesting decrease, and it will be
interesting to try to find some reasons
behind that.
The decrease is in the proportion
of kids wanting to do a TAFE diploma.
So, whether the kids that are in Year
9 were saying that the TAFE diploma
wasn’t the way to go, that they might
as well go to university, or go into an
apprenticeship or do something else, is
an interesting question.
There are also questions about whether
it’s to do with the lack of TAFE funding
and TAFE closing courses. It’s a bit hard
to find exact reasons why this might
have happened.
So all in all, from these findings, you
seem to think there’s cause for concern,
especially given the differences
between advantaged and disadvantaged
students.
I think that’s the problem. If there was a
decline and it was equal, I don’t think I
would have as much concern, but where
we have such stark differences between,
say, high and low SES, or Indigenous and
non-Indigenous, then those things do
worry me in terms of equity.
How important are expectations in
shaping a young person’s future?
They’ve very important, because
expectations to a great extent drive
how much effort you put into things
and how much engagement you have in
your work.
If your expectation is that you’ll finish
school and not go to university, then what
you study at school will be different than
if you do want to go to university.
Expectations are very important and
can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Kids who
don’t think they can go on to university
probably won’t. If they expect to go on,
they most likely will.
Do you have any data to compare what
happened to these kids who had varied
expectations?
Not at the moment, because these kids
won’t have finished school yet. They
were 15 in 2015, so they’ll be just finishing
school this year or next year. There have
been other studies that show that the two
are linked, and that one does lead to the
other, that expectations are reflected in
what happens.
Do you have any comment on the
argument that there are already too
many university graduates, and
that some students aren’t suited to
university, so not enrolling is actually
better for them?
I don’t have a problem with that. I don’t
think all students need to go to university,
but I do think it’s becoming apparent
that all students do need some form
of qualification. And it has been shown
that students who go on to university
and who gain a university degree are
more likely to do better in terms of what
they call the trifecta: health, wealth
and happiness.
Across all socioeconomic
groups, the proportion of
students who expect to go
to university has decreased
since 2003.
If those things aren’t equitably
distributed, there are problems in society.
So, if it’s more likely that high SES, non-
Indigenous metropolitan kids will go on to
university than their peers in other groups,
then there are equity issues that I think we
need to look at. That’s the main problem
as far as I see it. ■
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