Cable Media March 2014 | Page 14

research_1 28/02/2014 14:42 Page 2 RESEARCH ROUND-UP Liberty Global extends European dominance Pay-TV subscriptions for the 102 operators across 26 countries covered in a report from Digital TV Research will increase from a collective 105.8m in 2008 to 131.9m in 2012 and onto 147.1m by 2018. The European Pay TV Operator Forecasts report estimates that these operators represented 85% of European pay TV subscribers by end2012. Liberty Global/UPC extended its lead as Europe’s largest pay TV operation with the acquisition of the UK’s Virgin Media. The group had twice as many subscribers as sec- Gateway STBs bright spot in tough market DirecTV’s Genie, Liberty Global’s Horizon, Dish’s Hopper and the boxes that power Comcast’s X1 service have something in common other than better marketing names than an older generation of boxes. These feature-rich boxes bring more tuners to centralise DVR resources as well as better processing power, according to ABI Research. This horsepower improves responsiveness and user interface, and will also act as a ‘Trojan Horse’ as operators look to extend home automation and energy management services into homes. According to ABI’s findings, in 2013, North American and Western European operators shipped 4.5m units in a market which is conservatively estimated to grow 84% to 8.5m by 2018. Practice director Sam Rosen commented: “Operators have made decisions to move to gateway boxes for economic reasons, but more and more they are leveraging the power of those boxes to improve the quality and consistency of the experience they offer to consumers. Advertising campaigns highlighting unique features will supplement price and bundle oriented campaigns and target higher-end customers. US satellite operator Dish Networks, for example, will highlight the uniqueness of its 'watch anywhere' model, which is less subject to rights agreements than other operators.” Cisco market leader Data from Synergy Research Group shows that Cisco has maintained its 14 Cable Media ond-placed BSkyB at end-2012. However, Liberty Global’s subscriber count is not expected to grow by too much. The company has to deal with the conversion of 13.9m analogue cable subs in 2008 to virtually none by 2018. Russia’s Tricolor will become the second largest operator by 2018, with 15.7m subscribers. The low-cost DTH player also has many 'subscribers', which do not pay to receive the service and have therefore not been included in this report. However, not all of these operators will increase their subscriber bases, with 37 (36%) expected to decline between 2012 and 2018. Traditional pay TV operators now face greater rivalry than ever before – either from other pay TV platforms such as IPTV or satellite or from 'free' multichannel TV services such as DTT and online TV and video. Total subscription and VOD revenues for the 102 operators increased from $26.8 billion in 2008 to $34.5 billion in 2012. However, the total will only grow to $35.1 billion by 2018. These operators account for nearly 90% of European pay TV revenues. Subscription and VOD revenues will fall for 45 of the 102 operators (44%) covered in this report between 2012 and 2018, including eight of the top ten operators. BSkyB will remain at the top earner, recording $6.5 billion subscription and VOD revenues by 2018. Liberty Global closed the gap on BSkyB considerably with the acquisition of Virgin Media. Top five European pay TV operators by subscribers (000) 2012 Liberty Global Germany (Unity KBW) Belgium (Telenet), Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Romania, Ireland, Slovakia, Czech, Hungary, UK (Virgin) UK & Ireland Russia Germany BSkyB Tricolor Kabel Deutschland Rostelecom Russia 20,968 10,333 9,200 8,141 6,600 2018 Liberty Global Germany (Unity KBW), Belgium (Telenet), Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Romania, Ireland, Slovakia, Czech, Hungary, UK (Virgin) Tricolor Russia BSkyB UK & Ireland Kabel Germany Deutschland Rostelecom Russia 21,250 15,745 10,836 8,159 7,128 Source: Digital TV Research leadership in four of the five main video infrastructure market segments, though in video client hardware and software (which includes set-top boxes, residential gateways and associa Y