Thames Valley Businesses warn of rising cost pressures as investment confidence falters
Business leaders from across the Thames Valley gathered in Swindon for the latest Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce( TVCC) Quarterly Economic Briefing, sponsored by James Cowper Kreston and hosted by Thrings Solicitors, where the latest British Chambers of Commerce( BCC) Quarterly Economic Survey( QES) highlighted growing concerns around inflation, business costs and investment confidence.
The event also incorporated the Chamber’ s regular Bank of England inflation and interest rate briefing, providing businesses with an opportunity to hear the latest national and regional economic analysis.
Guest speaker Stuart Morrison, Research Manager, BCC, presented the findings from the BCC’ s Q2 2026 QES, one of the UK’ s largest and most respected indicators of business sentiment. Morrison stressed that the survey plays a vital role in shaping national economic debate and informing policymakers, including the Bank of England and Government departments.
The Thames Valley QES is sponsored by James Cowper Kreston, one of the region’ s leading accountancy and business advisory firms. Their support enables the Chamber to gather vital business intelligence from across the region, helping ensure the challenges and opportunities facing Thames Valley firms are represented in both regional and national policy discussions.
According to the results of the Q2 survey, business conditions remain fragile, with confidence indicators showing signs of decline and investment intentions falling to their lowest level since the pandemic. Just 44 % of businesses expect their turnover to improve over the next 12 months, down from 49 % in the previous quarter, while only a small proportion of firms reported increasing investment in plant, machinery and equipment.
The survey also found that inflation has re-emerged as the leading concern for businesses, overtaking taxation for the first time since late 2024. More than half of businesses( 52 %) reported fuel costs were pushing up their prices, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets. However, labour costs remain the most significant pricing pressure, with 70 % of businesses citing employment-related costs as a major challenge.
Further analysis presented by Stuart, showed that domestic policy-driven costs for a typical SME have increased by more than 70 % since 2016, with around a quarter
Tim Major, TVCC and Stuart Morrison, BCC
of that rise occurring since the Autumn 2024 Budget. The findings suggest that many smaller businesses continue to struggle with rising operating costs, resulting in reduced confidence and lower levels of investment.
The survey also examined business attitudes towards the Government’ s economic agenda. Around two-thirds of businesses nationally reported a lack of confidence that current economic policies would support growth, with respondents in the South East expressing even greater scepticism than the national average. Businesses responding to the survey consistently called for measures to reduce the cost of doing business, ease the tax burden and provide stronger support for SMEs.
Tim Major, Senior Account Manager, TVCC, said:“ The QES remains one of the most important tools available for ensuring that the voice of business is heard at the highest levels of decision making. Every completed survey helps build a clearer picture of the challenges and opportunities facing firms across the Thames Valley and across the UK.”
He continued“ The findings presented by Stuart reflect many of the conversations we are having locally. Businesses continue to face significant pressure from rising employment costs, inflation and ongoing uncertainty. When confidence falls, investment decisions are delayed, and that ultimately impacts productivity and growth.”
“ We are grateful to James Cowper Kreston for their continued support of the QES. Their sponsorship helps us provide a robust evidence base that supports local businesses while strengthening the collective voice of the Thames Valley business community.”
Tim concluded:“ Perhaps Stuart’ s most important message was that this data is not only for policymakers. It gives businesses a valuable opportunity to benchmark their performance, understand wider market trends and prepare for potential economic challenges ahead. We would encourage every business to take part in future surveys and ensure the Thames Valley continues to have a strong and influential voice.”
POLICY & INWARD INVESTMENT www. thamesvalleychamber. co. uk 41