News Breakbulk & Project Cargo
North America represented just 10 % of global wood pulp demand in 2023, while China accounted for 43 %. ByDroneVideos / Shutterstock. com
BEKP, largely favored for its short life span and high quality for kraft pulping, is a type of bleached hardwood kraft( BHK) pulp, which accounted for 55 % of global pulp demand in 2023, according to Fastmarkets. Meanwhile, bleached softwood kraft( BSK)— which is more commonly available in North America than BHK— accounted for 26 % of global pulp demand in 2023.
Market not folding
Still, global demand for paper isn’ t disappearing— it’ s evolving. As shippers brought forward cargo ahead of the tariffs, S & P Global Market Intelligence data shows that Brazil paper pulp exports increased 34.7 % in June versus the prior combined average for March, April and May.
That increase brought the on-year growth of paper pulp exports to more than 13 %. Brazilian pulp exports to mainland China were up by almost 19.6 % while shipments to the EU rose by almost 45 %.
“ The US only accounted for 13.3 % of Brazilian exports in the second quarter, suggesting the loss of the market may only be a marginal negative,” wrote Rogers.
Cristian Infante, the CEO of Chilean global forest product manufacturer Arauco, said its customers were being conservative in purchases even before the increased tariffs on Brazil, according to a May report from Reuters.
“ Most of our customers that export, especially to the US, really don’ t know what the price of their goods is going to be, so they’ re trying to buy as little as possible,” Infante said, as quoted by Reuters. gain competitive advantage, while downstream industries such as tissue and packaging could face cost pressures. Currency movements and freight rates may further shape the net impact on landed costs.”
According to Parsan Chand Mahaveer, a logistics specialist in the paper pulp industry, some shippers frontloaded their cargo to beat the Aug. 1 deadline, though moving cargo earlier than usual bore its own costs.
“ Frontloading volumes to the US incurs extra holding costs ranging from $ 30 to $ 50 per ton,” Mahaveer told the Journal of Commerce in late July.“ Some shippers are also circumventing tariffs by diversifying end markets and changing their supply sources, [ if possible.]”
Importers who do get hit with the tariff will likely be forced to shoulder the additional costs directly, ultimately positioning importers to pass on price increases to the consumer.
“ Most of the pulp on long term commercial agreement is being sold on [ a cost, insurance and freight ] basis in the US and any impact is being absorbed by importers in the US,” Mahaveer said.“ Pulp producers who import their own pulp into [ the US ] and distribute by themselves, they absorb the tariff impact.”
Still, some sectors of the pulp industry are more exposed than others. According to Fastmarkets, more than 82 % of bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp( BEKP) imported into the US comes from Brazil.
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“ The US is a key destination for Brazilian pulp, and any shift in trade policy could influence global supply chains.”
The uncertainty comes as Arauco invests $ 4.6 billion in the Sucuriú project, which would be the largest paper mill in the world to be built in a single phase. Located in Inocencia, Brazil, the company’ s largest investment yet will be capable of producing 3.5 million tons of pulp annually after it opens before the end of 2027.
“ Currently the US is the largest producer of pulp for paper, [ but ] during the next [ decade,] Brazil will massively reduce the gap due to drastic expansion,” Mahaveer said.“ China shall continue to remain the largest consumer of pulp. No other countries come anywhere near China.”
Chinese ship operator Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers runs a fleet of the world’ s largest specialized pulp carriers. On July 9, it named its newest pulp carrier, the 85,000-deadweight ton CSPC Pearl. The carrier operates a fleet of over 180 specialized vessels and has“ plans to further develop various types of pulp ships, [ and ] continue optimizing its pulp fleet,” Cosco said in a statement.
email: laura. robb @ spglobal. com
September 2025 | Journal of Commerce 17