News Breakbulk & Project Cargo
Pulp friction
Impending Brazil tariffs increase pressure on US pulp industry
By Laura Robb
After the closure— and announcements of future closures— of more than half a dozen paper mills around the globe this year, the pulp industry expects higher costs and tightened supply after 50 % US tariffs on Brazil went into effect in early August, stakeholders said.
The US paper pulp market is especially exposed to the higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration given its reliance on Brazil, as well as Canada and the EU, which face tariffs of 35 % and 30 %, respectively. According to data from S & P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce, those sources together accounted for 93 % of US imports of wood pulp between March and May of 2025.
The Trump administration’ s tariff plan“ carries significant risks for the US paper manufacturing sector,” Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S & P Global Market Intelligence, wrote in a July 16 analysis.
“ Many chemical pulp mills in USA and Canada [ have ] shut down due to high cost and low margins.”
In 2023, North America was only responsible for 10 % of global wood pulp demand, according to Fastmarkets’ World Pulp & Recovered Paper Forecast. Meanwhile, China accounted for 43 % of volumes, Europe 24 %, the rest of Asia 13 %, Latin America 6 % and the rest of the world less than 2 %.
And the global pulp industry was already facing challenges before higher US tariffs went into effect. Falling demand for paper products, increased consolidation across sectors and reduced margins have long impacted the industry, experts say. According to data analytics company ResourceWise, at least nine mills around the world have moved forward with closures since the beginning of 2025, including several in the US.
International Paper shut down its Louisiana containerboard mill in April, while Georgia-Pacific announced it would close its Georgia containerboard mill in August. Similarly, Smurfit WestRock this year closed its Minnesota coated recycle board mill and ceased production at its Texas-based containerboard mill, while Greif permanently closed two recycled paperboard mills in California and Massachusetts, ResourceWise shows.
“ Many chemical pulp mills in USA and Canada [ have ] shut down due to high cost and low margins,” said a paper pulp logistics market source.“ Future capacity growth will come from Brazil, Indonesia and Chile due to the low cost of wood and production.”
A Tako board mill in Finland owned by Metsa Board and a UPM Communication Papers paper mill in Germany also closed this year. Several of the closure announcements, both in North America and internationally, cited weak demand and high operating costs as contributing factors, according to ResourceWise.
Volatility instead of stabilization
According to paper industry consultant EMGE’ s Paper and Pulp Industry Outlook 2025, there were expectations for the paper and board sector to stabilize“ somewhat” this year, but tariff announcements have only increased volatility.
US imports of wood pulp fell 4.7 % year over year in May, according to Rogers’ analysis. That includes a 19.9 % slide in imports from Canada and a 6.3 % drop from the EU, reflecting the different tariff rates applied under the IEEPA( deficit) and IEEPA( fentanyl) programs, he wrote.
“ The US is a key destination for Brazilian pulp, and any shift in trade policy could influence global supply chains,” Fastmarkets pulp analyst Mateus Saraiva said in a July 14 article.“ Other exporters with lower tariff exposure may
16 Journal of Commerce | September 2025 www. joc. com