Commentary Breakbulk & Project Cargo
Energy assumes that OPEC + will halt production increases during 2026, but there is no expectation of a reduction in Russian production or exports. This has led S & P Global Energy to forecast an average crude price of $ 50 to $ 60 per barrel in 2026. Oil majors use an oil price benchmark of closer to $ 70 per barrel for investment commitments for exploration and production projects.
Supply still tight
Shipments of battery energy storage systems will help power project cargo demand growth through 2030. YoungNH / Getty Images
Growth in the multipurpose vessel( MPV) fleet has been focused on the heavy-lift sector for the past few years, catering to those heavier power generation and wind cargoes. That sector of the fleet is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 4.1 % through 2030, according to a Journal of Commerce forecast that takes into account historical demolition trends, charter market rates, order book slippage and potential new orders. Newbuilding orders for the heavy-lift sector continue to trickle in, and demolition levels remain low.
For the MPV fleet, with heavy-lift capability below 250 tons, growth is projected at less than 1 % per year over the same period. Demolition levels for this sector are marginally higher, mainly because this fleet is older, but there is also more competition for these cargoes, and rates are expected to remain at or below current levels for some time.
In addition to the risk of falling oil and gas project investment, there are more unknowns that could destabilize parts of the MPV sector in 2026. When the Red Sea eventually reopens for all tonnage, there will be a 10 % rise in MPV capacity, according to Journal of Commerce projections. Some of this may be mopped up by shortterm port congestion upon reopening, but likely not
enough to avoid overcapacity. The geopolitical outlook also remains uncertain, and tariffs continue to affect breakbulk and project cargo trade.
That said, patchy cargo demand for some sectors of the fleet could work in shippers’ favor as there will be increased competition for the cargoes that are transported, forwarders say.
email: susan. oatway @ spglobal. com
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64380 www. joc. com March 2026 | Journal of Commerce 15