Commentary Breakbulk & Project Cargo
A two-tiered market
By Susan Oatway
A lumpy project cargo demand outlook through 2027 is creating a confused market, with a jagged split of“ haves” and“ have nots” when it comes to cargo commitments.
According to data from S & P Global Energy, global power demand is surging, with significant impact because of power demand from data centers, which has accelerated faster than most grids can accommodate. This demand is not only for the equipment that will produce the extra power needed, but also for new infrastructure to renew the power grid in some regions, principally North America.
Upstream E & P spending to rebound in 2027
Global upstream exploration and production spending, in billions of USD
USD billion
US data center power demand expected to skyrocket
Power demand from data centers by region, in terrawatt-hours( TWh)
TWh
622 600
500
400 100 300
200
100
600
100 400 316
0 L 2020
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Notes: Data as of December 2025; figures for 2026 – 30 are forecasts
Source: S & P Global Energy CERA
200
0 L 2020 2025
2030
2030 US Europe Mainland China Rest of Asia-Pacific
Latin America
Notes: Data as of November 2025; figures for 2026 – 30 are forecasts
Source: S & P Global Energy
Onshore
Africa & Middle East
Offshore
© 2026 S & P Global
© 2026 S & P Global
L
L
Growth in power demand from data centers will grow at an average annual rate of 13.5 % through 2030 for the US alone, according to S & P Global Energy. Growth in power demand from these installations for mainland China is forecast at a compound annual growth rate of 14.1 % and at 10 % for Europe. India is starting at a much lower base, but the forecast growth over the next five years is over 25 % per year.
Original equipment manufacturers have told the Journal of Commerce their factories are fully booked to produce turbines for the next few years. At the same time, ship operators with deck carriers and heavy-lift capability said they have fixed long-term contracts of affreightment for specialized tonnage.
Conversely, other sectors are not seeing the same levels of booming cargo demand. Crude oil prices are expected to remain at or below $ 60 per barrel for most of 2026, according to S & P Global Energy, adversely impacting global exploration and production capital spending for 2026 and continuing a negative trend that began in 2024.
The oil and gas cargo outlook is not as rosy as it is for the power generation sector.
Some of the largest decreases in expected spend for 2026 are in Europe( down 9.4 %) North America( down 5 %), and Asia-Pacific( down 5 %). This is expected to lead to a drop in new rigs, both off and onshore, of almost 2 % in 2026, according to S & P Global Energy. The oil and gas sector is a significant driver of project cargo demand.
Shippers and forwarders operating in this sector have confirmed to the Journal of Commerce that the cargo outlook is not as rosy as it is for the power generation sector. Some oil-related projects saw investors disappear in 2025, with little expectation that they will return in 2026, forwarders said. In the US, economic uncertainty persists, as do concerns over oil supply constraints and uncertainty regarding the latest round of US sanctions.
Inventory levels in 2026 are significantly above those seen in 2025 and production growth is forecast to outpace demand growth over the first quarter of 2026. S & P Global
14 Journal of Commerce | March 2026 www. joc. com