Commentary Breakbulk & Project Cargo

By Susan Oatway

Multipurpose ship operators are keeping a weather eye on slumping demand, plummeting freight rates and an expected deluge of new vessel capacity in the competing container ship sector, fearing conditions will prompt mode-malleable cargoes to literally jump ship.

Container carriers are bracing for a decline in volumes, echoing challenges not seen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple factors are contributing to this slump, including a contracting US economy and slowing retail sales.

Seaborne dry cargo growth to average 1 % per year through 2026

Global seaborne dry cargo trade by mode, with year-over-year change million metric tons

MPV / HL fleet growth to average 1.7 % through 2029

Multipurpose and heavy-lift vessels delivered vs. demolished, with net loss / gain

Number of vessels

8,000

6,000 10,000 4,000

2,000

100

100 50

0

Container trade Dry Bulk trade General Cargo / Neo Bulk trade Global Growth Seaborne Trade( Rhaxis)

Notes: Data as at April 2025 Shaded areas indicate forecast

Source: S & P Global Market Intelligence

-50 2020 L

2025

2 %-4%

MPV delivered MPV demolished HL capable delivered HL capable demolished Net fleet loss / gain

Notes: Heavy-lift capable maximum combinable lift > 240mt SWL Data as of April 2025 Shaded areas indicate forecasts

Source: Journal of Commerce, S & P Global

© 2025 S & P Global

6 %

4 %

0 %

-2 %

-4 %

© 2025 S & P Global

Conversely, the multipurpose / heavy-lift( MPV / HL) sector is eyeing modest growth for 2025, according to an exclusive Journal of Commerce analysis, albeit clouded by economic headwinds and regulatory questions. But that growth outlook could diminish if more-than-expected breakbulk cargoes shift to cargo-starved container ships in that forecast period.

Seaborne dry cargo trade— a catch-all group that includes dry bulk, dry containerized and general cargo— was expected to grow at an average of just 1 % per year through 2026, according to an April 2025 forecast from S & P Global Market Intelligence. This forecast was almost halved from the January 2025 forecast report. S & P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.

Container carriers have some tools to manage the influx of newbuildings. Capacity that arrived during the first quarter of 2025, for example, was mitigated by blank sailings, slower steaming and the idling of vessels. However, as the situation worsens, this may not be sufficient, and falling container rates could tempt some cargo traditionally moved as breakbulk to containers.

With the pressures from competing sectors, MPV / HL rates will likely soften, although shippers attending the Journal of Commerce’ s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference said they did not expect charter rates to fall off a cliff the way spot container pricing has.

Stark contrast

The broader dynamics within the MPV / HL fleet differ starkly from the container sector. The MPV order book is much more modest, equivalent to just 9 % of the operating fleet, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis. Fleet growth projections are equally restrained at an average 1.7 % per year through 2029.

However, there are downsides to the limited ship supply pipeline. In recent conversations with the Journal of Commerce, shippers have raised concerns about capacity going forward, especially for project cargo that needs heavy-lift vessels or deck carriers.

“ Our biggest challenge is capacity,” one shipper said.“ Is this going to be sustainable in the future? If you can’ t get a space at all, that’ s a bigger problem than a rise in fees.”

In contrast, the project cargo sector, while not immune to global economic trends, pres-

14 Journal of Commerce | June 2025 www. joc. com