BAMOS November 2025
16 Article
5. Natural environment
Risk to the natural environment is expected to be severe by 2050.
Important ecosystems and species will be lost by the middle of the century. At 3 ° C warming, species will be forced to move, adapt to the new conditions or die out. Some 40 % to 70 % of native plant species are at risk.
Ocean heatwaves and rising acidity, as well as changes to ocean currents, will massively alter the marine ecosystems around Australia and Antarctica. Coral bleaching in the east and west will occur more frequently and recovery will take longer.
Ocean warming and acidification also degrades macroalgae forests( such as kelp) and seagrasses. Freshwater ecosystems will be further strained by rainfall changes and more frequent droughts.
Loss of biodiversity will threaten food security, cultural values and public health. The changes will disrupt the cultural practices of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and their connection to Country.
6. Infrastructure and the built environment
By 2050, the climate risk to infrastructure and built environment is expected to be high or very high.
Climate risks will push some infrastructure beyond its engineering limits, causing disruption, damage and in some cases, destruction. This will interrupt businesses and households across multiple states.
Extreme heat and fires, as well as storms and winds, will increasingly threaten energy infrastructure, potentially causing severe and prolonged disruptions.
Transport and supply chains will be hit. Water infrastructure will be threatened by both drought and extreme rainfall. Telecommunications infrastructure will remain at high risk, particularly in coastal areas.
The number of houses at high risk may double by 2100. Modelling of extreme wind shows increasing housing stock loss in coastal and hinterland regions, particularly in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
7. Primary industries and food systems
By 2050, risks to the primary industries and food systems will be high to very high. This increases food security risks nationwide.
Variable rainfall and extreme heat will challenge agriculture, reducing soil moisture and crop yields. Farming communities will face water security threats.
Hotter climates and increased fire-weather risks threaten forestry operations. Fisheries and aquaculture are likely to decline in productivity due to increased marine temperatures, ocean acidity and storm activity.
The livestock sector will face increased heat stress across a greater area. At 3 º C warming, more than 61 % of Australia will experience at least 150 days a year above the heat-stress threshold for European beef cattle.
Biosecurity pressures will increase. Rainfall changes and hotter temperatures are expected to help spread of pests and diseases.
8. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples
As part of the assessment, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples identified seven additional nationally significant climate risks:
• self-determination
• land, sea and Country
• cultural knowledges
• health, wellbeing and identity
• economic participation and social and cultural economic development
• water and food security
• remote and rural communities.
As the report notes, climate change is likely to disproportionately impact Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in terms of ways of life, culture, health and wellbeing as well as food and water security and livelihoods. It also notes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples“ have experience, knowledge and practices that can support adaptation to climate change”.
Climate risks will push infrastructure beyond its limits. Dave Hunt / AAP
Climate change is likely to have disproportionate impacts on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Lucy Hughes Jones / AAP