Article
BAMOS November 2025
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2. Communities
Coastal, regional and remote communities face very high to severe risk.
More than 1.5 million people in coastal communities could be exposed to sea level rise by 2050, increasing to more than 3 million people by 2090.
Communities within 10km of soft shorelines will be especially vulnerable to erosion, inundation and infrastructure damage.
Extreme weather events – including heatwaves, bushfires, flooding and tropical cyclones – will intensify safety and security risks, especially in Northern Australia.
Compounding hazards are expected to erode community resilience and social cohesion. Water supplies in many areas will be threatened. Economic costs will escalate and people may be forced to migrate away from some areas.
Compounding hazards are expected to erode community resilience. James Ross / AAP
3. Defence and national security
Climate risk to defence and national security is expected to be very high to severe by 2050. This system includes emergency management and volunteers.
Defence, emergency and security services will be increasingly stretched when hazards occur concurrently or consecutively.
If the Australian Defence Force continues to be asked to respond to domestic disasters, it will detract from its primary objective of defending Australia. At the same time, climate impacts will cause instability in our region and beyond.
Repeated disasters and social disruptions are likely to erode volunteer capacity. Increasing demands on emergency management personnel and volunteers will intensify and may affect their physical and mental wellbeing.
Defence, emergency and security services will be increasingly stretched. Mick Tsikas / AAP
4. Economy and finance
Risks to the economy, trade and finance is expected to be very high by 2050. Projected disaster costs could total A $ 40.3 billion every year by 2050, even at 1.5 ° C.
Losses in labour productivity due to climate and weather extremes could reduce economic output by up to $ 423 billion by 2063. Between 700,000 and 2.7 million working days would be lost to heatwaves each year by 2061.
Extreme weather will lead to property damage and loss of homes, particularly in coastal areas. Loss on property values are estimated to reach A $ 611 billion by 2050. Insurance may become unaffordable in exposed areas, putting many financially vulnerable people at further risk.
Coupled with increased prices for essential goods, living costs will rise, straining household budgets.
The economy could experience financial shocks, leading to broader economic impacts which especially affect disadvantaged communities.
Extreme weather will lead to property damage. Pictured: a family cleans up after floods in Taree, New South Wales, in May this year. Adam Oswell / AAP