BAMOS Vol 31 Special Issue October 2018 Bulletin Vol 31 Special Issue 01 2018 | Page 25

BAMOS
Special Issue
Ocean forecasting: a grand challenge
that is delivering on its promise
Gary Brassington
Bureau of Meteorology
The goal to forecast the chaotic
ocean was first proposed by the
US Navy in the mid-80’s. Ocean
forecasting has now matured to
the point that skilful forecasts are
having a measurable impact on
societal applications including
defence, search and rescue and
offshore industries. New advances
in our science will extend this
capability and its impact over the
next decade.
The latest thinking on extreme sea
levels for coastal planning
Kathy McInnes
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Storm surges and oceanic waves are the
major cause of extreme sea levels and
devastating coastal impacts along coastlines.
The coastal impact of storm surges and
waves will continue to increase under rising
sea levels, while projected changes in global
atmospheric circulation and weather patterns
on interannual to climate change time scales
may further influence likelihoods of severe
storm surges and waves through changes to
the frequency, intensity and location of severe
weather events. Understanding such changes
at the regional to coastal scale is essential
for robust coastal planning and adaptation.
Progress towards understanding wave and
storm surge climates and their combined
contribution to extreme sea levels in the
context of a changing climate was presented.
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