BAMOS
Sept 2017
Weather Tipping update
Grant Beard, Weather Tipping Administrator
On the eve of the finals, the top eight is now done and dusted.
The final round at Cobar proved to be tough for all competitors
due to the timing of a cold front on the Sunday. It was the
Bureau’s worst forecast for the season, but did little to change
the finalists.
The top eight this year is a list of familiar figures. John
Pidinchedda topped the ladder (daylight is coming second),13
points clear of Rowland Beardsell from the Bureau’s Adelaide
Airport office. David Shield and Tim Eckert round out the top
four in a tight finish.
One point separates Merlinde Kay in 5th from Blair Trewin in
7th, who in turn is five points clear of Cameron Lewis in eighth
position. Blair, who was runner-up in last year’s Grand Final,
hopes to go one better this year by “doing a Western Bulldogs”
from the bottom half of the eight. And for the first time in
several years the Bureau has made the finals coming in 6th.
The top eight will now play off:
• 1st Qualifying Final (John Pidinchedda v Tim Eckert)
• 2nd Qualifying Final (Rowland Beardsell v David Shield)
• 1st Elimination Final (Merlinde Kay v Cameron Lewis)
• 2nd Elimination Final (Bureau v Blair Trewin)
Predicting rainfall continues to be a major challenge, although
the total errors for the rainfall component of the forecasts are
generally lower than those for either minimum or maximum
temperature. However, this statistic is misleading, as the low
scores are more a reflection of the lack of rain across Australia
during the forecast season, rather than excellent forecasting.
When it has rained at the forecast location, errors have
accumulated more quickly. Let’s hope for some wet finals to
spice things up.
The best score for each of minimum temperature, maximum
temperature and rainfall over the 23 “home-and-away” rounds,
i.e. the regular season, is as follows:
• Rainfall: Grant Burgess with a score of 18.
• Minimum Temperature: David Shield with a score of 37.
• Maximum Temperature: John Pidinchedda with a score
of 32.
With scores being so close among most of the top eight, there’s
every chance of a tied finals result. The rule states that “In the
event of a tie in any final, the player with the higher ladder
position after Round 23 will advance”.
The easiest round for the year was Round 19 over the weekend
of 5–6 August at Darwin, where no fewer than six competitors
scored a perfect zero. Perfect scores are very rare; six scoring
zero is unheard of. You may be thinking that scoring zero at
Darwin in the heart of the dry season should be easy, but that’s
far from the case. Subtle changes in wind and humidity can
make one or a two degrees difference in both the maximum
(via timing of the sea-breeze) and minimum temperatures.
The most difficult round (apart from last weekend) was probably
round 18 at Laverton RAAF (Victoria) over the weekend of 29–
30 July: scores for the top ten forecasters for the round ranged
from 4 to 9.
So, all-up it could be considered to have been a successful
season. We wish everyone good forecasting for the finalists
starting this weekend to coincide with the AFL finals.
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