includes Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, which have not only
achieved political centralization but also made significant
strides toward nascent pluralism. Our theory would suggest
that sustained economic growth is very unlikely in
Colombia.
Our theory also suggests that growth under extractive
political institutions, as in China, will not bring sustained
growth, and is likely to run out of steam. Beyond these
cases, there is much uncertainty. Cuba, for example, might
transition toward inclusive institutions and experience a
major economic transformation, or it may linger on under
extractive political and economic institutions. The same is
true of North Korea and Burma (Myanmar) in Asia. Thus,
while our theory provides the tools for thinking about how
institutions change and the consequences of such changes,
the nature of this change—the role of small differences and
contingency—makes more precise predictions difficult.
Even greater caution is necessary in drawing policy
recommendations from this broad account of the origins of
prosperity and poverty. In the same way that the impact of
critical junctures depends on existing institutions, how a
society will respond to the same policy intervention
depends on the institutions that are in place. Of course, our
theory is all about how nations can take steps toward
prosperity—by transforming their institutions from extractive
to inclusive. But it also makes it very clear from the outset
that there are no easy recipes for achieving such a
transition. First, the vicious circle implies that changing
institutions is much harder than it first appears. In particular,
extractive institutions can re-create themselves under
different guises, as we saw with the iron law of oligarchy in
chapter 12. Thus the fact that the extractive regime of
President Mubarak was overturned by popular protest in
February 2011 does not guarantee that Egypt will move
onto a path to more inclusive institutions. Instead extractive
institutions may re-create themselves despite the vibrant
and hopeful pro-democracy movement. Second, because
the contingent path of history implies that it is difficult to
know whether a particular interplay of critical junctures and
existing institutional differences will lead toward more
inclusive or extractive institutions, it would be heroic to
formulate general policy recommendations to encourage