2018 SPECIAL
Trends and forecasts for satellite video services in APAC
BY DIMITRI BUCHS
After strong growth in recent years driven by the launch of new pay-TV platforms , the development of freeto-air ( FTA ) offerings and the takeoff of HDTV , consolidated capacity utilisation across Asia-Pacific has slowed down in the past couple of years , with growth mainly coming from South Asia , led by India .
Overall , regional growth slowed as several platforms decreased their number of channels , with some of them also ending their services due to mounting terrestrial FTA and over-the-top ( OTT ) competition . In parallel , only a limited number of new platforms were rolled out in the past couple of years , one of the latest being Solar DTH in the Philippines in 2017 . 4K / Ultra HD ( UHD ) has also remained relatively limited so far , contributing to the lack of dynamism of the market . As of February 2018 , 17 4K / UHD channels were broadcast by satellite in Asia-Pacific .
South Asia Growth should mainly be supported by competition in pay-TV , as well as by the possible launch of several new platforms , including in Pakistan , where direct-to-home ( DTH ) licences have recently been auctioned . In the short term , growth should largely depend on the availability of additional capacity to distribute new TV channels . In the longer term , growth is expected to result from large HD roll-outs and the first 4K / UHD roll-outs . High throughput satellite ( HTS ) could also be used for TV broadcasting . In terms of primary market risks , consolidation within the DTH market would have a significant impact on capacity usage . A change in the regulatory framework could also impact the market .
South-east Asia Growth should mainly be supported by satellite pay-TV platforms . New platforms could be launched in a few countries , as most countries in South-east Asia are still at an early stage of pay-TV development , and as several market players are still in a fragile position , notably in Indonesia . Demand should also be driven by the development of HDTV , as well as the digitisation of ground networks . Further , some platforms in countries ( such as Indonesia ) with a high number of active services may consolidate their activities or endservices , especially once growth in subscribers and revenue slows down .
2 An Supplement
North-east Asia Despite the negative impact of the end of SD / HD simulcasts for DTH platforms in the short-term and the development of OTT , the regional market is expected to benefit from different factors . The main driver after 2020 should be 4K / UHD . Following the roll-out of the first channels in 2014 , the region is expected to be one of the world pioneers for the development of both 4K / UHD and 8K ( from 2020 ). A total of 110 4K / UHD channels are expected to be broadcast in Northeast Asia in 2025 . HD , despite the already advanced development stage of the format , should continue to drive the market , with roughly 100 channels added by 2025 .
China Area The region , particularly mainland China , offers numerous opportunities for satellite pay-TV . Our initial assumption is that the “ satellite TV platforms ” type of services is unlikely to be launched in the short to middle term . Still , licensees for such services would likely be Chinese companies that are potentially state-owned . Furthermore , mainland Chinese satellite operators should be preferred for the broadcast of such platforms . Based on the assumption that platforms will be in service and that there will be substantial progress in the digitisation of terrestrial networks , the number of channels is expected to develop progressively in the next decade .
Oceania & Pacific Growth is expected to come from the introduction of more HD channels and more digital channels to fill terrestrial networks . Growth is nevertheless expected to be limited by the relatively small size of the market , its maturity and the growing focus of broadcasters on non-linear services , particularly in Australia and New Zealand . More than 500 HD channels could be broadcast in the region by 2025 . Around 50 % of total channels distributed in the region should be HD channels in 2025 .
Dimitri Buchs is senior consultant , Euroconsult .
Spectrum sharing ? Even before WRC-19 comes around next year , Intelsat and Intel have submitted a joint proposal to expand the use of 3700-4200MHz spectrum from satellite services to terrestrial mobile services .
ground-segment hubs at multi-gateway sides to counter the complexities and effects of rain fade . So , while HTS is provisioned in either Ku- or Ka-band , there is still a compelling case to be made for traditional C-band fixed-satellite service ( FSS ) widebeam broadcast distribution .
At WRC-15 , one of the key verdicts passed was to maintain C-band spectrum primarily for FSS . However , this may prove to be a temporary reprieve as the International Telecommunication Union ( ITU ) prepares to re-convene for WRC-19 next October in Sharm El Sheikh , Egypt . Perhaps , unsurprisingly , mobile operators have already begun to clamour for parts of the C-band spectrum band to be allocated for the International Mobile Telecommunications Advanced ( IMT- Advanced ) service .
And in a further twist to this development , satellite services provider Intelsat , in conjunction with Intel , submitted a joint proposal last October under a current Federal Communications Commission ( FCC ) Notice of Inquiry regarding expanding the use of 3700- 4200Mhz spectrum from satellite services to terrestrial mobile services .
If the proposal is adopted , wireless operators would be able to access new “ mid-band ” spectrum that would help accelerate the adoption of 5G services .
According to Intelsat and Intel , satellite users would continue to operate in the band with “ certainty of continued high quality ” for C-band video distribution and data networks .
To say the least , this is a controversial position that is unlikely to sit well with many providers of C-band satellite services , particularly in Asia-Pacific .
While HTS services provisioned in Ku- or Ka-band are likely to grow across the region , C-band frequencies , arguably , remain vital to the operation of satellite services in Asia-Pacific , where ‘ rain fade ’ is most prominent .
Governments and regulators need to consider carefully the potential impact of allocating C-band spectrum , if any at all , to the IMT industry . What would be the criteria for any spectrum sharing scheme , and how would this impact both operators and users ?
In many under-developed countries in Asia-Pacific , where high-speed mobile networks simply do not currently exist , will C-band sharing diminish the ability to connect under-reached populations ? For the sake of the future of broadcast distribution in Asia-Pacific , it is a decision that no government or regulator in the region can afford to take lightly .
Rising above the challenges caused by disruption
A survey conducted by the World Teleport Association ( WTA ) on top executives of satellite service providers at the end of 2017 produced some thought-provoking results . Nearly half of respondents ( 44 %) of media-focused companies expect declines in DTH , terrestrial and cable TV origination , as well as distribution services .
To counter the downturn , they are now directing their investment in over-the-top ( OTT ) distribution , private cloud services for content owners , the Internet of Things ( IoT ) and the integration of third-party cloud services into their offerings .
In the past year , a wave of disruptive technologies and market changes has begun to challenge operators , said Robert Bell , executive director of WTA . “ This includes new models of connectivity — HTS , middle and low earth orbit spacecraft , [ and ] is driven by the rising domination of software over hardware , customer demands for seamless global service , and the accelerating shift in how media consumers want their programming delivered .”
Having said that , and despite of the expected decline in their core business , 18 % of respondents to the WTA survey indicated a continued willingness to invest in terrestrial , cable and DTH distribution .
There is still “ significant capacity growth potential ” in Asia over the long term , argued Alan Crisp , senior analyst at Northern Sky Research ( NSR ), an international market research and consulting firm . “ Despite some gloom in some more developed video markets , the very real value of satellite in terms of point-to-multipoint content carriage is not going away ,” he said .
In Myanmar , for example , multiple new platforms have been launched over the past couple of years , with several operators benefiting from multitransponder contracts , NSR reported . And in Indonesia , the most populous Muslim country in the world , the sheer size of the country means there is still a sizeable number of households getting a TV set for the first time .
Within South-east Asia , increasing levels of disposable income means there is still significant room for an increase in first-time subscribers paying for DTH , cable TV and IPTV subscriptions .
Or , as Crisps sums up perfectly : “ There are opportunities , if you know where to look .”