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extensive freedoms to prosecute their
mission; the Kremlin is, however, not
the exclusive customer. 7 Global use is
increasing, both state and non-state
sponsored, as their tactical utility becomes
evident through a number of countries
and organisations’ experimentation.
They are not constrained by international
law or obliged to tell the truth, something
their opponents are subject to. Figure
1 depicts a personal echo chamber.
Every person has one and it can
be affected, if targeted correctly.
Additionally, the Kremlin does not seek
to convert the world to its own way, but
to any other than the current. Business
theory conceptualises this in FUD:
Fear, uncertainty and doubt. 8 Spread
mistruths about a competitor’s product
to undermine consumer confidence and
observe what happens. In political theory
this is understood as ‘divide and rule’.
The scale at which the Kremlin operates
is well known, however, its behaviour
in the information domain draws
distinct parallels to Mao’s three-phased
insurgency tactics. These phases are
organisation and preparation, terrorism
and guerrilla warfare, and conventional
warfare. 9
Phase One
The Kremlin has created capable
organisations, both nationally and
internationally, that enable the preparation
of the ‘cyber ground’. Information is fed
into echo chambers already established
in targeted audiences (countries,
social demographics, ages, social
media channels, to name but a few),
introducing, reinforcing or manipulating
narratives depending on the mission and
at a time of their choosing. The mission’s
time scale is often irrelevant as it can vary
from hours to years. An enemy will seek
to set conditions that are favourable in a
battlespace that is yet to be realised. The
preparation conducted by cyber soldiers
relies on the fact that information must
remain relevant to the target audience,
sometimes even allowing counter
information to propagate and ‘trend’
in the information space. 10 Context is
subjective and a simple example is the
use or misuse of punctuation: The panda
eats, shoots, and leaves versus the
panda eats shoots and leaves. Context
one is violent and loud, the second
Figure 1
simply calorific consumption. Correct
punctuation is now almost voluntary and,
with its decay, misunderstanding spreads
and leads to ambiguity. 11
In Syria, the Kremlin understood that,
after years of conflict, many media users
were ready to support anyone with a
consistent and believable message no
matter how abhorrent it might be. 12 The
use of chemical weapons was a red line
for President Obama’s administration;
the repercussions on those who used
such weapons made clear. 13 However,
after numerous chemical attacks on
civilians little physical action followed.
Furthermore, the West’s diplomatic
position was often too complicated to
be widely understood and remained
unconvincing to the Syrian population.
In contrast, the Kremlin synchronised its
information campaigns with compelling
and convincing physical action. This
linkage of the physical and informational
domains gave the Kremlin more
credibility and a larger share of the
regional audience.
7 Simon Shuster, “This KGB Chief Rang the Alarm About Russia-U.S. Cyberwars. No One Listened,” Time, March 23, 2018, http://time.com/5210728/russia-u-s-hacking-cyberwar-kgb-soviet-
union/.
8 Author Unkonwn, “Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD),” Changing Minds,” http://changingminds.org/disciplines/sales/articles/fud.htm.
9 Author Unknown, “The Three Stages of Mao’s Revolutionary Warfare,” Parallel Narratives, https://parallelnarratives.com/the-three-stages-of-maos-revolutionary-warfare/.
10 Jen Marchetti, “How Marketers Must Evolve to Remain Relevant in a ‘Post-Millennial’ World,” Entrepreneur, March 5, 2018, https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/309145.
11 http://littlecalamity.tripod.com/Text/Newspaper.html
12 Post operation interview with Capt Richard Luckyn-Malone 77X.
13 Pamela Engel, “Obama reportedly declined to enforce red line in Syria after Iran threatened to back out of nuclear deal,” Business Insider, August 23, 2016, https://www.businessinsider.com/
obama-red-line-syria-iran-2016-8?r=UK.
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