READY FOR TODAY – EVOLVING FOR TOMORROW
effect. Reporting comes from All-Source
Intelligence, including multi-spectrum
ISR, ground manoeuvre units reporting
information and Open Source material.
The ability to exploit all sources will be
used where possible, in order to facilitate
BDA.
The commander will require the analyst
to provide him with a confidence call on
the current BDA assessment. This is
determined by the amount of physical and
functional damage that has resulted with
the application of force. This information
is uploaded to the Joint Targeting System
(JTS) in the form of a Phase 2 BDA
report. A reattack recommendation can be
based on either the physical or functional
assessment and will come directly from
the BDA analyst to the commander.
Phase 3 BDA is conducted at the
national level and provides input into
the overall campaign assessment at the
strategic level.
BDA as part of Intelligence
Support to HQ ARRC
BDA provides the HQ Staff with essential
information and intelligence to support
the commander’s intent. Primarily it
gives the commander a measure of
effectiveness of the fires activity he
has approved and an understanding
of enemy Combat Effectiveness (CE).
In the COIN environment the BDA
was primarily focussed on the effect of
targeting activity against individuals and
the networks they belonged to. However,
with the possibility of warfare against a
peer adversary, BDA is an essential part
of the planning process. The ability to
inform the commander of the attrition of
Example 1
How do we know White Widow
jihadist Sally Jones has been
killed? – source news.sky.com/
uk
enemy units, formations, and specific
capabilities (such as Anti-Access and
Area Denial assets) is a critical output
from BDA. The CE assessment is of
particular importance to the intelligence
staff as it enables refinement of
assessed enemy intent, based on losses
of capability and/or personnel.
The IST cell intelligence analysts use
BDA to close the targeting cycle which
enables them to make recommendations
for future deliberate targets at the 96hr
point. By understanding the effectiveness
of activity against the adversary, BDA also
enables the G2 All Source Cell to conduct
relative strength analysis, which informs
the planning process; particularly when
looking to conduct manoeuvre warfare.
BDA in the Wider Context
BDA also
supports
the
Public
Affairs Office (PAO) with regards to
consequence management, for example
allegations of civilian casualties or so
called ‘friendly fire’ incidents. Accurate
BDA supports HQ ARRC’s Information
Operations effort with the level of
confidence about a given incident and
enables the commander to deliver a
more convincing message, supported by
evidence. Operational Analysis Branch
(OAB) also exploits BDA to assist the
overall Campaign Assessment.
Beyond
the
immediate
military
environment and into the information
space, our actions will be reported in the
world media which can have an effect
(positive or negative) on perceptions of
the overall campaign and the way it is
being conducted. Below are two example
of BDA as reported by the media.
Special Forces would be sent to the
scene to gather DNA and other evidence
for proof. Intelligence Analysts examine
cockpit footage from either the drone or
jet which carried out the strike.
The science of BDA is, and will remain,
a complex and critical function of
any future campaign. As HQ ARRC
continues to recalibrate towards Corps
warfighting, investment in training of
staff in conjunction with coordination with
other NATO (and National) organisations
is key to success in the long term.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
WO1 Andrew Herrity currently heads
G2 Branch IST Cell at HQ Allied Rapid
Recation Corps. He has served in the
Royal Regiment of Artillery for over 23
years and has deployed on numerous
operations conducting targeting and BDA.
SSgt Marco Orru currently serves in the
G2 Branch All-Sources Cell of the HQ
Allied Rapid Reaction Corps. He has
served in the Italian Army for 23 years as
an intelligence specialist with experience
across a broad range of operations and
disciplines.
Sgt John Viviani is currently serving as
the G2 IST Cell Intelligence SNCO in
the at HQ Allied Rapid Reaction Corps.
He has served in the Intelligence Corps
for 11 years, primarily focussing on all-
source intelligence and intelligence
support to targeting both in firm base and
on operations.
Bdr James Cheetham is currently the G2
Branch IST Cell BDA analyst in HQ Allied
Rapid reaction Corps. He has served in
the Royal Regiment of Artillery for 8 years.
His knowledge and experience comes
from conducting surveillance and target
acquisition on operations in Afghanistan.
Conclusions are made using the best
available information but this cannot
always be 100% certain, hence the
caution from officials if this information
ever comes out into the public domain.
British defence officials are confident in
this case that Sally Jones was killed. “The
UK and US military has been working
closely together on a number of high-
profile targets in recent months and Jones
is believed to have been on that list.”
12th October 2017
Sally Jones, the former punk rocker from
Kent, fled to Syria with her son in 2013
and became a leading recruitment officer
for Islamic State. Jones became known as
the White Widow after her British jihadist
husband Junaid Hussain was killed in a US
drone strike in August 2015. Following the
death of Hussain, Jones was reportedly
placed in charge of the female wing of
IS’ Anwar al-Awlaki Battalion - a foreign
fighter unit formed with the purpose of
planning and executing attacks in the
West (Figure 5).
Establishing the success or failure of
a drone strike in Syria is hard. Ideally,
Summary
Intelligence on targets is gathered through
human sources and communications
data. Drones can then fly above a target
for hours, monitoring patterns of life and
waiting for the precise moment to strike.
The decision to strike can be taken within
seconds or after hours of consideration.
Sometimes, Ministers will have pre-
authorised the targeting of certain high-
profile individuals.
Figure 5-White Widow wiped out
ALLIED RAPID REACTION CORPS
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