ARRC Journal 2018 | Page 53

READY FOR TODAY – EVOLVING FOR TOMORROW Operational Risk Risk management is critical to operational planning and execution. Operational risk is identified during mission analysis; it is evaluated by the likelihood of its occurrence and the gravity of its impact on operations, forces, or mission critical assets. A plan is developed that takes into account the possibility that risks will manifest and provides the commander with options to counter risks by identifying potential Decision Points that may be required during the execution of the plan. The risk is managed by continually re- evaluating the risk, monitoring changes and implementing counter actions as required. The associated indicators and warnings can be tracked through the development of information requests and intelligence requirements; these culminate into the Commander’s Critical Decision Points • • • DP1. DP2. DP3. Information Requirements (CCIRs). The CCIRs provide the required information to determine the timing of the Commander’s Decisions Points, leading to development of requisite branches and/or sequels. CCIRs • • CCIR 1. CCIR 2. Risks • • • • R1. R2. R3. R4. Figure 1 – HQ ARRC Planning Process Assumptions • • • A1. A2. A3. Figure 2 – Cross Walk diagram How Does Risk Management Inform Operational Decisions? During operations, the Commander may be required to make a decision to execute a branch plan (‘what if’) or sequel (‘what next’) that will have been identified and developed during the planning phase. The linkages between Decision Points, CCIRs, Risks and Assumptions will have been established during the planning phase; this cross-walk (figure 2) will be checked throughout the execution phase. For every planning assumption there will be corresponding risk that the assumption proves incorrect, other risks to the plan will also be identified during the planning phase. The CCIRs identified as either Priority Information Requirements (PIRs) on the Enemy or Friendly Forces Information (FIRs) requirements should aim to provide an early indication that the risk is likely which will inform planning and early decision making; if this likelihood increases beyond an acceptable level, a decision point will be reached. How Does Risk Management Inform HQ ARRC Daily Business? As part of HQ ARRC’s management process, th e concept of risk is used for assessing the ability to deliver COM’s Objectives. Potential risks are identified for each objective; the effect of not achieving the objective; and therefore, the risk to HQ ARRC’s delivery of output or function. An understanding of the risk enables staff to develop the most effective way of delivering the objective. HQ ARRC’s operational tasking involves the rotation through the NATO Response Force (NRF) roles of Corps, LCC or JTF headquarters. During the planning for HQ ARRC to take over as the NRF LCC 2017 it became clear that in terms of NRF risk, there were a number of issues which were not captured or being managed, and so a NRF risk register was developed to enable this HQ and others to understand the implications of these risks as well as to identify ways to mitigate them. This risk register has enabled prudent planning to drive down the impact or likelihood of the risks owned by this HQ. And where COM ARRC does not have the levers to mitigate the risk, it has enabled him to pass the risk ownership to higher national or NATO headquarters and press them for solutions. Conclusion key element to delivering successful outcomes, be that on operations or to support HQ ARRC normal daily business. It highlights the fact that throughout the planning and execution phase, the staff must continue to ask the questions ‘what could go wrong?’, if the risk of something going wrong is being tracked, if mitigation is in place and branch plans and sequels have been developed for all possible scenarios; only when this is done will the commander have the right information to make the right decision at the right time. Despite all this, it is perhaps pertinent to finish with a note of caution and take on board what the force behind Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, had to say on risk “The biggest risk is not taking any risk…..In a world that is changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks”. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Lt Cdr Charlotte Yemm is currently SO2 Maritime Plans in the G5 Branch and is the risk manager for at HQ Allied Rapid Recation Corps. She has served as a warfare officer on operations in Northern Ireland and the Gulf. In conclusion, this article has highlighted that identifying and managing risk is a ALLIED RAPID REACTION CORPS 53