READY FOR TODAY – EVOLVING FOR TOMORROW
Operational Risk
Risk management is critical to operational
planning and execution. Operational risk
is identified during mission analysis;
it is evaluated by the likelihood of its
occurrence and the gravity of its impact
on operations, forces, or mission critical
assets. A plan is developed that takes
into account the possibility that risks will
manifest and provides the commander
with options to counter risks by identifying
potential Decision Points that may be
required during the execution of the plan.
The risk is managed by continually re-
evaluating the risk, monitoring changes
and implementing counter actions as
required. The associated indicators and
warnings can be tracked through the
development of information requests
and intelligence requirements; these
culminate into the Commander’s Critical
Decision Points
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•
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DP1.
DP2.
DP3.
Information Requirements (CCIRs).
The CCIRs provide the required
information to determine the timing of the
Commander’s Decisions Points, leading
to development of requisite branches
and/or sequels.
CCIRs
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•
CCIR 1.
CCIR 2.
Risks
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•
•
•
R1.
R2.
R3.
R4.
Figure 1 – HQ ARRC Planning Process
Assumptions
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•
•
A1.
A2.
A3.
Figure 2 – Cross Walk diagram
How Does Risk Management
Inform Operational Decisions?
During operations, the Commander may
be required to make a decision to execute
a branch plan (‘what if’) or sequel (‘what
next’) that will have been identified and
developed during the planning phase.
The linkages between Decision Points,
CCIRs, Risks and Assumptions will have
been established during the planning
phase; this cross-walk (figure 2) will
be checked throughout the execution
phase. For every planning assumption
there will be corresponding risk that the
assumption proves incorrect, other risks
to the plan will also be identified during the
planning phase. The CCIRs identified as
either Priority Information Requirements
(PIRs) on the Enemy or Friendly Forces
Information (FIRs) requirements should
aim to provide an early indication that the
risk is likely which will inform planning and
early decision making; if this likelihood
increases beyond an acceptable level, a
decision point will be reached.
How Does Risk Management
Inform HQ ARRC Daily
Business?
As part of HQ ARRC’s management
process, th e concept of risk is used for
assessing the ability to deliver COM’s
Objectives. Potential risks are identified
for each objective; the effect of not
achieving the objective; and therefore,
the risk to HQ ARRC’s delivery of output
or function. An understanding of the
risk enables staff to develop the most
effective way of delivering the objective.
HQ ARRC’s operational tasking involves
the rotation through the NATO Response
Force (NRF) roles of Corps, LCC or JTF
headquarters. During the planning for
HQ ARRC to take over as the NRF LCC
2017 it became clear that in terms of NRF
risk, there were a number of issues which
were not captured or being managed, and
so a NRF risk register was developed to
enable this HQ and others to understand
the implications of these risks as well
as to identify ways to mitigate them.
This risk register has enabled prudent
planning to drive down the impact or
likelihood of the risks owned by this HQ.
And where COM ARRC does not have
the levers to mitigate the risk, it has
enabled him to pass the risk ownership
to higher national or NATO headquarters
and press them for solutions.
Conclusion
key element to delivering successful
outcomes, be that on operations or to
support HQ ARRC normal daily business.
It highlights the fact that throughout the
planning and execution phase, the staff
must continue to ask the questions ‘what
could go wrong?’, if the risk of something
going wrong is being tracked, if mitigation
is in place and branch plans and sequels
have been developed for all possible
scenarios; only when this is done will the
commander have the right information to
make the right decision at the right time.
Despite all this, it is perhaps pertinent to
finish with a note of caution and take on
board what the force behind Facebook,
Mark Zuckerberg, had to say on risk “The
biggest risk is not taking any risk…..In a
world that is changing really quickly, the
only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is
not taking risks”.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Lt Cdr Charlotte Yemm is currently SO2
Maritime Plans in the G5 Branch and is
the risk manager for at HQ Allied Rapid
Recation Corps. She has served as a
warfare officer on operations in Northern
Ireland and the Gulf.
In conclusion, this article has highlighted
that identifying and managing risk is a
ALLIED RAPID REACTION CORPS
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