ARRC JOURNAL
THE UTILITY OF RISK
MANAGEMENT TO UNDERPIN HQ
ARRC’S PLANNING, READINESS
AND OPERATIONS
Lt Cdr Charlotte Yemm RN (GBR-N)
This article seeks to explain how HQ ARRC identifies and manages risks associated with
operations and exercises or as part of its normal daily business as a Corps Headquarters,
Land Component Commander (LCC) Headquarters and Joint Task Force (JTF)
Headquarters. So why do you need to know about risk and how it is managed on behalf of
COMARRC? The simple answer is that COMARRC views all his decisions through the lens
of risk and therefore, in order for him to make informed decisions he needs to be reassured
that his staff understand the processes that the HQ uses to identify and manage risk.
What is Risk?
“The general who
wins the battle makes
many calculations
in his temple before
the battle is fought.
The general who
loses makes but
few calculations
beforehand”.
Sun Tzu, the Art of War
Before going into the detail of the
processes associated with identifying
and managing risk, it is worth exploring
what risk is and how HQ ARRC
defines risk. Risks are caused by the
uncertainties of future events that may
or may not occur or uncertainties based
on lack of information or understanding.
The definition of risk sees a combination
of the likelihood of an event occurring,
the impact of the event (positive or
negative) and an estimate of that impact.
Any decision making regarding risk will
include an element of scientific analysis
to assess the likelihood of an event
occurring, coupled with the subjectivity
of military judgement applied to the
assessment of impact and this will often
be based on the experience of the military
commander. For these reasons the risk
management process can be considered
a combination of art and science.
Why Does Risk Management
Matter?
If risks are not managed correctly the
end result can be catastrophic. There are
many examples in history, but a recent
example of not managing risk robustly is
evident by looking at the 2010 Deepwater
Horizon Oil Disaster. The investigation
into the event concluded that the loss of
life and subsequent pollution of the Gulf
of Mexico were the result of poor risk
management, last minute changes to
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ALLIED RAPID REACTION CORPS
plans and a failure to respond to critical
indicators – all these factors are equally
relevant to any military operation as they
are to a multinational corporation’s oil
drilling plan.
How Does HQ ARRC Identify
and Manage Risk?
During planning, the utility of viewing
everything through the lens of risk ensures
that the staff looks at everything that could
go wrong before they start doing things;
that way the HQ can prioritise resources
and plan for all possible situations.
This is relevant both on operations and
when managing the business output
of the headquarters. HQ ARRC has
developed its risk management process
through adapting current UK MOD Risk
Management Processes; the same
formula is used for delivering HQ ARRC
objectives and output as for operational
planning. The four primary components
are: IDENTIFY, EVALUATE, PLAN and
MANAGE (Figure 1). Risk management
is complementary to operation planning
and execution and provides the means to
identify and understand potential events
that significantly impact the ability of HQ
ARRC to meet operational objectives.
The risk management processes are
ongoing throughout planning and
execution to continually review risk
and adapt to the constantly changing
operational environment.