ARRC JOURNAL
Figure 1- The Sandtable STAAT Dashboard( Annotated)
Informed Influencing Through the Sandtable Model
Another significant benefit of utilising STAAT can be seen in the sentiment trend analysis it produces. Over time, the record of action and sentiment reaction provides a further database for exploitation. Thus during the“ Battle of the Narratives”, important- yet often fleeting- opportunities for influence interventions can be identified. Swift action can often subsequently shape an undecided population; to the benefit of the campaign objectives.
Such a window of opportunity presented itself during EX ARRCADE FUSION 17, when a belligerent Bothnian opposition force was occupying a fictitious version of the port city of Klaipeda, whilst NATO forces advanced towards them.
Through the employment of STAAT, a detailed analysis of sentiment in Klaipeda took place, during a period when the NATO forces were offering the Bothnian armed forces safe passage back to Bothnia. The intended effect was to encourage desertions and defections, whilst degrading fighting power and impacting the will to fight. The offer became known as the“ Golden Bridge”.
The sentiment analysis suggested that the most effective way of supporting the
operational plan relied upon undermining local support for the Bothnian troops, through the population. This was attributable to the fact that the Bothnian invasion was predicated on legitimacy gained from supporting a dislocated, mistreated Bothnian population. If this population could be seen to separate itself from the armed forces- both its political standing and local resolve would be eroded- increasing the likelihood of partial acceptance of the“ Golden Bridge”.
The STAAT analysis indicated:
1. Attitude in Klaipeda was predominantly shaped by 15-29 year old males of Bothnian ethnic origin, who were influenced most effectively through social media and SMS. Older audiences were more pro-NATO and EU, and are less susceptible to messaging.
2. Klaipeda was a National centre for sentiment due to key influencers being based there, prominent social network activist having familial links to the town, and a young, politically active population.
This delineated the most susceptible target audiences, the best medium to influence them, and the wider effect messaging could achieve operationally.
The STAAT modelling( see Figure 2) then suggested the most effective messages- tested through varying COA’ s- should include:
1. NATO seeks a peaceful resolution by offering the Golden Bridge. Gains high approval ratings with the target audience and translates well across key mediums. Has the second order effect of positive receivership in the international community.
2. Bothnian stated aims are not consistent with their actions. Highlighting the contradiction erodes local national Bothnian support and isolates Bothnian soldiers. Supports NATO’ s strategic narrative through social media repetition.
3. The National Government is supported by the international community, and has a“ Government in Waiting” for Klaipeda. Strengthens NATO narrative by association, and undermines Bothnian perception of current governance and need for occupying force.
4. Younger, ethnic Bothnian key influencers find the“ Golden Bridge” appealing, and become more receptive to future NATO messages as a result as“ latitude of agreement” is increased. Future potential for future Key Leader Engagement.
1 Meadows, M and Cliff, D( 2013)“ The relative disagreement model of attitude dynamics: where do extremists come from?” In International Workshop on Self-Organizing Systems- Volume 8221. 2 Hovland, C and Sherif, M( 1961). Social judgment: Assimilation and contrast effects in communication and attitude change. Oxford, England: Yale University Press.
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