Arlington Municipal Airport Development Plan Arlington Airport Development Plan | Page 68
strong in the areas around Arlington Municipal Airport. If realized, the projected employment growth
for the area could provide a strong base for increased aviation demand for the region.
TABLE 2C
Regional Employment Projections
Projections
Average Annual
Growth Rate
Dallas/Fort Worth/Arlington MSA
4,196,855
4,688,975
5,142,560
1.86%
Tarrant County
1,086,443
1,197,948
1,298,943
1.64%
Dallas County
1,980,944
2,187,196
2,374,008
1.66%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission; Woods & Poole Complete Economic Demographic Data (2014)
2013
2019
2024
AVIATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
The development of aviation forecasts proceeds through both analytical and judgmental processes. A
series of mathematical relationships is tested to establish statistical logic and rationale for projected
growth. However, the judgment of the forecast analyst, based upon professional experience,
knowledge of the aviation industry, and assessment of the local situation is important in the final de‐
termination of the preferred forecast.
By developing several projections for each aviation demand indicator, a reasonable planning envelope,
or range of forecasts, will emerge. The selected forecast may be one of the individual projections or a
combination of several projections based on local conditions. The selected forecast will almost always
fall within the planning envelope. Some combination of the following forecasting techniques is utilized
to develop the planning envelope for each demand indicator.
Trend line projections are probably the simplest and most familiar of the forecasting techniques. By
fitting growth curves to historical demand data and then extending them into the future, a basic trend
line projection is produced. A basic assumption of this technique is that outside factors will continue
to affect aviation demand in much the same manner as in the past. As broad as this assumption may
be, the trend line projection does serve as a reliable benchmark for comparing other projections.
Market share analysis involves a historical review of aviation activity as a percentage, or share, of a
larger regional, state, or national aviation market. A historical market share trend is determined,
providing an expected market share for the future. These shares are then multiplied by the forecasts
of the larger geographical area to produce a market share projection. This method has the same limi‐
tations as trend line projections, but can provide a useful check on the validity of other forecasting
techniques.
Chapter Two - 13