Apartment Trends Magazine August 2020 | Page 34

COLORADO’S LABOR FORCE THREE MONTHS INTO COVID-19 The impacts of COVID-19 have not been equally felt across the labor market and certain business models have been disrupted significantly more than others. As expected, restaurants, large event venues, hotels and other personal services have been severely impacted. This range in impacts across industries, is also reflected in changes across different groups within the labor market. Women and those with education levels lower than a college degree have been disproportionately negatively impacted. The following series of charts show the impacts of COVID-19 on the Colorado labor force between February and May 2020, reflecting the month prior to the start of the pandemic and the latest available monthly data broken down into: Gender, Age, and Educational Attainment. 1 1 The underlying data sources include: The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Labor Market Information (LMI) Gateway – Colorado, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and IPUMS Current Population Survey (CPS) harmonized microdata. KEY FINDINGS 267,000 COLORADANS 88,000 MEN & 179,000 WOMEN February 2020 to May 2020, 267,000 Coloradans dropped out of the labor force, as the labor force participation rate dropped 69.4% → 63.6% List of Charts Monthly History Since 2005 By Gender By Age (Male) By Age (Female) Figure 1 – Labor Force Participation Rate Figure 2 – Unemployment Rate Figure 3 – Labor Force Participation Rate Figure 4 – Unemployment Rate Figure 5 – Male Labor Force Participation Rate Figure 6 – Male Unemployment Rate Figure 1 - Colorado Labor Force Participation Rate Figure 7 – Female Labor Force Participation Rate Figure 8 – Female Unemployment Rate By Educational Attainment Level Figure 9 – Labor Force Participation Rate Figure 10 - Unemployment Rate The 2015 labor force participation rate (LFPR) was at a low of 66.5%, since then the overall rate had slowly climbed an upward to 69% in February of 2020. Over the last three months, the LFPR has fallen by over 3%, slightly below the 2015 low. This drop in the LFPR amounts to 266,700 people dropping out of the labor force. One of the largest drops in the labor force was seen in women over the age of 35, with this group experiencing a decline of nearly 8% participation dropping from 63% to 55.3%. This is more than double the decline in the same age category for men. PARTICIPATION WOMEN AGES 35+ PARTICIPATION DROPPED 63% → 55.3% MEN AGES 35+ PARTICIPATION DROPPED 76% → 72% FIGURE 1 Figure 2 - Colorado Unemployment Rate From February 2020 to May 2020, the state’s unemployment rate rose from 3.3% to 10.2%, driven by a net loss of 273,500 jobs. April 2020 was the worst month of job losses in Colorado history with over 326,000 lost jobs from the month earlier. The slight reduction in the unemployment rate from April to May, account for both the addition of 68,000 jobs and the data reflect the growth of over 68,000 jobs along with the offsetting decline in the labor force participation rate. As more Coloradans drop out of the labor force, which pressures the unemployment rate (total employed/labor force) to drop. If the labor force participation rate had not declined as well, and given the job loss over last three months, the unemployment rate would actually stand at a much higher 18%. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GREW 4.3% 17.2% Coloradans with no college degree, including those with a high school diploma or those who did not graduate high school, saw unemployment rate grow from 4.3% to 17.2%. FOR THOSE WITHOUT A COLLEGE DEGREE Current unemployment rates don’t fully reflect the recent labor market disruptions. If labor force participation rates in May had stayed at the same level as February, then the May unemployment rate would be closer to 18%. By gender it would be 22% for female and 14% for male. FIGURE 2 32 | TRENDS AUGUST 2020 www.aamdhq.org