Apartment Trends Magazine August 2020 | Page 33

VACANCY & RENT RON THROUPE | UNIVERSITY OF DENVER Rents and Vacancy Detangle as COVID-19 Effect Still in Flux The second quarter Denver Metro Apartment Vacancy and Rent report showed a decrease in rent, although demand pressure was evident by a decline in vacancy. The second quarter of 2020 does reflect effects of COVID-19 as the quarterly data is requested as it is as of June 10, 2020. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% The Metro Denver apartment market showed 10% an overall quarterly 0% decrease in vacancy to 5.1% from 5.9%, with a year over year increase of 0.1% from 5.0%. Vacancy decreased for all counties reported. The Denver Metro apartment market added 1,170 new units with most of those being in Denver County (936). Net absorption was 3,801 units for the second quarter. While the second quarter has become the quarter where we tend to see the greatest rent increases for the year, the overall average rent decreased $29.99, from $ 1535.70 to $1505.71 from the first quarter results. The year over year change from second quarter 2019 ($1519.80) results in a yearly decrease of $14.09. Median rent moved down from first quarter 2020’s $1475.43 to $1453.97, for a quarterly change of $21.46. Secondary indicators reveal potential COVID-19 dynamics. The unit turnover percentage was dampened to 3.7% for the quarter, where this figure would typically be expected to range from 4.5% to 5% for spring moves. This is likely a COVID-19 What percentage of this property’s total tenants did not pay in a Given Month and were not evicted due to COVID-19 related considerations? 0-4.99% 5-9.99% 10-14.99% 15-19.99% 20-24.99% 25+% April May June effect, combined with management firms’ not enforcing evictions for nonpayment. Economic vacancy (vacancy + concessions + write-offs) declined from a first quarter number of 13.3% to 12.1%. Rental losses (discounts/concessions, delinquents, and bad debt) were at 5.6% compared to 5.7% for the first quarter of 2020. These may be surprising results to some with the concerns of non-payment by renters and potential job losses. The results say the opposite, as people appear to have hunkered in place with non-payment of rents being less than 5% of total renters for the majority of communities. As part of a special survey of COVID-19 effects, the participants for this quarter were asked about the delinquency patterns for the months of April, May, and June. The results show that the amount of non-payment was low, with the majority of respondents saying their results show less than 5% of tenants not paying. But there was some erosion of rent payment as we move from April to June as the percentage of communities experiencing a 5-9.99% of non-payment increased, as the 0-5% response incrementally decreased. Many responses to the special survey questions mentioned rent deferral programs in place during these months, illustrating that both locally, and nationally, there has been some slow payment of rents. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues and government relief programs expire or are revised, future rent variations may appear, and we’ll continue to track the trends. www.aamdhq.org AUGUST 2020 TRENDS | 31