ME AS URIN G A NY T H I NG
probabilities to uncertain outcomes has
been tested with frequentist methods.
That is, extremely large trials have been
conducted where individuals’ probabilities
were compared to observed outcomes. As
mentioned earlier, the authors and other
researchers have verified that people who
are trained as “calibrated probability assessors” can repeatedly assign probabilities that, after sufficient trials, align with the
observed frequencies. Since probability is
your state of uncertainty, and since you can
be calibrated, you can always state a probability – in the Bayesian sense.
6. Statistical significance doesn’t mean
what you think, and what it does mean
you probably don’t need.
Another issue the author was observing that was getting in the way of useful
measurements was that there was a widely
held, but very vague, understanding of the
concept of “statistical significance.” The
new edition addresses pervasive misunderstandings of this idea and then makes
the case that, even when it is understood,
it isn’t directly relevant to most real decision-making problems. The book contains
examples in which just five sample observations, or in some cases even just one observation, su