impact , Africa is still confronted with pre-existing pandemics , such as HIV / AIDs , TB , and Malaria , which continue to kill more people than Covid . Those pandemics are still not receiving the attention they deserve in terms of a global response because they are essentially a problem for the Global South . In the 1990s , it took a long time , a decade , for anti-retroviral drugs to become affordable and accessible . The question before us , therefore , becomes : Is there a risk that covid replicates the same trajectory ? That is to say , once the Global North has vaccinated a critical number of its people , covid becomes an endemic problem for low-income countries like pre-existing pandemics . If so , that will have a significant impact on the economies as they suffer the burden of both the old pandemics and the new pandemic .
The economic recovery of the countries in the Global South will essentially depend on four factors : i ) the path of the coronavirus ii ) the rate of vaccination iii ) global supply chains iv ) multilateral action . At this point , no one is certain as to the path of the covid virus as it continues to mutate . Moreover , the rate of vaccination is still low , less than 10 % in Africa as a whole .
On the economic side , the virus has interrupted the global supply chains , the cost of transporting goods has increased dramatically , and the impact is being felt by importers and consumers alike at the marketplace .
So , there ’ s enormous work that needs to be done for the kind of recovery that will address these vulnerabilities . But where will the resources , both public and private , come from at a time of massive social needs and contracting fiscal base ? The ability of countries to galvanise domestic ( and to attract foreign ) investment will determine whether we can widen the tax base , build social inclusion through massive job creations , and create social safety nets . In this regard , investment will be key . To return to growth , Africa needs to have a rate of investment – public and private – above 30 % of GDP .
Moreover , it will be time to turn economic growth into economic transformation . After all , there is evidence that since independence in the 1960s Africa ’ s extractive economies ( rich in minerals ) have not performed any better than those that are not endowed with vast natural resources . Dependency on natural resources will have to steadily give way to participation in the global supply chain at higher levels .
We are entering a phase where some of the commodity producers will have a huge advantage : copper prices are the highest ever ; and there are similar trends for cobalt , etc . This trend is mainly driven by the energy transition – from fossil fuels . However , the need to diversify our economies remains paramount for obvious reasons . For one thing , relying on commodity prices to foster growth is risky because producers are vulnerable to market volatility .
In addition to fostering inclusive and non-volatile growth , Africa needs to turn its challenges into opportunities for investment . For instance , this pandemic has exposed the continent ’ s overreliance on the global supply chain in diagnostics , therapeutics , and especially vaccines . So , it ’ s quite correct for countries to begin to explore opportunities such as those in vaccine manufacturing .
Synergy in multilateral responses
This crisis has demonstrated the inadequacy of the multilateral architecture both in preparedness and response . Countries in the Global North galvanized massive stimulus packages . Those in the Global South have no means to do so . Therefore , there is need to synchronize the return to growth such as the recent release of 650 billion Special Drawing Rights ( SDR ). However , a lot of these SDRs have gone to wealthy countries – the G8 and G20 – that do not need them and only 33 billion SDRs were released to African governments . The ideal in terms of economic stimulus would be the implementation of the decision to recycle 100 billion SDR to these countries that need them .
Whether one looks at it through the prism of global solidarity or through that of self-interest for the wealthiest countries , synchronizing the return to growth
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