to include the financial needs of developing countries is the fastest path to global recovery . There is a simple reason for that : in the long run , real growth can only come from the most demographically dynamic parts of the world , which are Africa and Asia . What we call megatrends in Africa – growing population , young population , and rural-to-urban migration – are still there . For anyone focused on the long term ( not these shortterm issues like commodity prices ), these three megatrends alone create huge economic opportunities in Africa , which no other part of the world has , except perhaps the Middle East and parts of Asia . On its part , Africa needs to invest more in human capital to increase and leverage these demographic opportunities .
So now , what have we learned ? One , Africa must work to become part of the supply chain for some of the key products that Africans need . Interestingly , some countries like Rwanda and Senegal have taken this lesson seriously – they are now planning to get mRNA technology for malaria and tuberculosis . Two , Africa ’ s integration must accelerate via the African Continental Free Trade Area .
However , these efforts must be complemented with deepening trade . For example , the recently launched Pan African Payment Settlement System ( PAPSS ), perhaps the most significant development for Africa in recent years , will go a long way in facilitating intra-Africa trade by removing impediments related to settlement of payments via third party foreign currency . In the same light , there ’ s a need to agree on the single air market and on the visa on arrival scheme for bona fide African business operators .
The pandemic has stalled economies across the world and interrupted Africa ’ s growth path since the early 2000s . GDP has shrunk , the tax base has dwindled , and expenditure needs – driven , in part , by the need to heavily invest in the health sector – are higher at the time when debt service has increased . However , global recovery – not just African recovery
– is what is needed in the larger scheme of things . If by some stroke of miracle global policymakers take a decision that brings about our synchronized return to growth as it happened in 2008 , and if Africans themselves make the right choices at the continental and domestic levels , the possibility to recover and return to the path of growth is still there . But before everything else , we must focus on three things : vaccination , vaccination , and vaccination !
However , and this is fundamental , none of the above will matter until we “ Silence the Guns ” and keep out the fires in some of these conflict-affected areas , such as in the Greater Sahel . ❧ ❧ ❧
Dr Donald Kaberuka is a Rwandan economist and the former president of the African Development Bank . Since 2020 , he is the African Union ' s Special Envoy in charge of mobilising international economic support for the continent in the fight against COVID-19
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