African Mining November 2021 | Page 19

COUNTRY IN FOCUS •

Much of this strategy has been attributed to Magufuli ’ s own claims that divine intervention had defeated Covid-19 in Tanzania . Public and institutional pressure on the government to accept the reality of the public health situation has grown over the last few months . An adjustment in strategy on Covid-19 , or at least cooperation with the World Health Organisation ( WHO ), could be a more straightforward change .

However , radical change in other areas of government is unlikely in the short run . The new President is unlikely to be able to significantly re-sculpt policies of certain government departments at the expense of support from the complex party landscape she will inherit . There will also likely be significant opposition to Suluhu if she is perceived to be eroding Magufuli ’ s legacy – a potential complication for a total U-turn on Tanzania ’ s current Covid-19 strategy .

Suluhu Hassan has previously demonstrated a pro-business narrative , particularly towards mining , in contrast to Magufuli ’ s more confrontational , protectionist and anti-western approach in recent years . Anticipated legislation , such as expected anti-business mining reforms , are likely to be delayed or potentially revamped . It is conceivable that a Hassan presidency could make Tanzania more accessible , but the incoming president will have a difficult dynamic to manage within her party first .

New president ’ s impact Suluhu is a very different individual to John Magufuli . The Vice President ’ s prominence has risen in recent years , particularly appearances on the international stage . Unsurprisingly , she is highly likely to be far less sporadic than Magufuli , while her soft rhetoric contrasts Magufuli ’ s more brazen approach . However , although a Hassan presidency could be a reset in style , this does not mean a reset in policies .

Under Magufuli , Tanzania has been an outlier in its approach to the pandemic , undergoing a policy of Covid-19 denial , suspending testing in April 2020 , and dismissing both social distancing measures and vaccines .

What is sure at this point is that Tanzania has lost a leader who consolidated his grip on the ruling CCM and the country more so than perhaps any of his predecessors . He will leave a legacy that is second only to the country ’ s founding president Julius Nyerere . In terms of the next steps for investors , the key things to watch include :

• Is Tanzania at risk of a constitutional crisis if the country is not governed by a President elected by the people , or if CCM deviates from the steps outlined in the constitution and decides not to elevate Hassan ?

• Does corruption start to increase now that Magufuli is not in office to crack down on those caught stepping out of line ?

• Will power be less centralised with ministers afforded the ability to run their own ministries and make significant decisions without the approval of the president ?

• Does the bureaucracy speed up now that it is not paralysed by the fear of making a wrong decision ; a fear instilled by Magufuli ’ s keenness to fire those who make the wrong decision that has seen many officials instead make no decisions .

• Will Tanzania take a more conventional approach to managing the Covid-19 pandemic ? If so , we are likely to see a significant influx of donor funds pour into the country .

• Will Magufuli ’ s mega-projects , including the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project , ongoing revival of Air Tanzania and the building of a new airport on the outskirts of the country ’ s capital Dodoma be mothballed ?

• Will the country accept more donor assistance to support its national budget , perhaps taking the pressure off the Tanzania Revenue Authority ( TRA ) to aggressively broaden and deepen the country ’ s tax base ?

• Will Tanzania finally be ‘ open for business ’ with a fair and predictable fiscal and policy regime that encourages new investment and supports existing investment ?

New president under fire In July , the new president came under fire after the arrest of main opposition leader Freeman Mbowe , and 10 of his party members .