• COUNTRY IN FOCUS
All Images : © Leon Louw
A view of Dar Es Salaam , the major port in Tanzania .
However , although there is a constitutional plan for succession , Suluhu ’ s ability to govern as Magufuli ’ s successor is more complicated . Magufuli ’ s succession was not prearranged and there is significant uncertainty over the transition in power .
Suluhu is unlikely to retain the loyalty afforded to Magufuli from within the ruling party , Chama Cha Mapinduzi ( CCM ). Infighting has been a growing dynamic within the CCM since the October 2020 election . Magufuli retains loyalists within key facets of government , notably the intelligence services , but elements within the CCM are likely to be eager to marginalise the influence of Magufuli loyalists , while supporters of the late President will almost certainly seek to maintain influence and steer
16 • African Mining • November 2021 government . As a result , there is a heightened risk of accentuated factionalisation within the CCM . This would most likely undermine the new president ’ s ability to govern effectively and has the potential to disrupt flagship government policies .
Suluhu is not a particularly controversial figure . She has been loyal to Magufuli but has not been a ‘ loyalist ’. As a Muslim and hailing from semi-autonomous Zanzibar , she is likely to be contentious within some traditional Christian elements of the CCM . Hassan lacks her own support base but is likely to draw from Tanzania ’ s Muslim population ( 35 %) and reportedly has the support of former president , Jakaya Kikwete . Her ability to govern will depend on how she manages factions within her party . www . africanmining . co . za