Climatology
East Africa on Alert for El Niño Deluge
E
ast African countries near the equator are
bracing for high El Niño-related rainfall that
meteorologists warn may cause floods, crop losses
and disease in the coming months.
The region is set to experience much more rain
than usual during the October-December wet
season, and possibly until early next year, forecasts
say - although the rains may be less heavy than
those experienced during the powerful 1997-98 El
Niño ocean warming event.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO),
Kenya Meteorological Department, Tanzania
Meteorological Agency and Uganda National
Meteorological Authority have issued warnings
about the risks associated with higher rainfall.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network says
flooding along rivers and lakes, such as Lake Victoria, and
flash floods in lowland areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia
and Tanzania are likely to force people from their homes,
lead to crop and livestock losses, and make it difficult for
people to access food and work.
Map showing East Africa
“We are already experiencing high amounts of rainfall
in some parts of the country, which is a clear sign of
El Niño,” says Richard Lesiyampe, principal secretary
of Kenya’s Ministry of Environment and Natural
Resources. He says that some areas have seen more than
50 millimetres of rainfall a day, well above the average 20
millimetres.
According to
Lesiyampe, the
government and
donor agencies
have provided 6
billion shillings
(around US$58
million) to prepare
for the effects of
El Niño.
For instance,
camps have
been set up to
accommodate
displaced people
in areas prone
to landslides, he
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Africa Water, Sanitation & Hygiene • November - December 2015
Photo: Hezron Ochiel/IRIN
says, and health workers will be available in at-risk areas to
protect against waterborne diseases such as cholera.
The government also says it will vaccinate livestock against
Rift Valley fever, a mosquito-borne disease that also affects
humans. The disease is likely to surge if flooding increases
the standing water available for the insects to breed in.
County governments have built dykes to control the levels
of rivers in western Kenya that usually burst their banks
during heavy rain. Kenya also has 76 automated weather
stations giving up-to-date rain data to the meteorological
department, which relays this to the public through the
media.
Samuel Mbuya, a meteorologist at the Tanzania
Meteorological Agency, says his country is well prepared
to cope with the effects of the rains, and urges “citizens,
especially in northern Tanzania, to be alert and follow
weather updates issued by meteorologists.”
In Uganda, however, Grace Sana, a farmer from Mukono
district in the centre of the country, says she fears that
high rainfall could cause the loss of her crops.
In the long term, East African farmers should also
prepare for the drought that is likely to follow the El Niño
rains by picking drought-tolerant crop varieties, advises
Rodney Lunduka, a socioeconomist who works for the
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in
Zambia.