2016 ROI Fourth Quarter Edition with Q & A HIS Capital Group Edition | Page 2

FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS
From the desk of Sam Ally
It’s late November in Orlando, and I’m gazing out
through the conference room windows of our
downtown office putting thoughts together for this
edition. I can’t help but wonder if this month has
all been just a dream. The Chicago Cubs won the
World Series, hell did not freeze over, and one of the
greatest political upsets in our history has turned the
world upside down. It is now over two weeks postelection, yet rallies, riots and civil unrest over the result
continues in over a dozen states.
“Surreal” with a dose of uneasiness and uncertainty is
how most of our team would describe the way they
feel about what has transpired. It really is going to
take some time, perhaps well beyond inauguration
day to wrap our collective heads around what just
happened. The air appears to be filled with a whiff of
buyers-remorse and a hint of “heaven help us”.

“Whoever wishes to foresee the
future must consult the past; for
human events ever resemble those of
preceding times. This arises from the
fact that they are produced by men
who ever have been, and ever shall
be, animated by the same passions,
and thus they necessarily have the
same results.”
- Machiavelli

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HIS Capital Group

As my attention returns to my computer screen the
quote above appears as if out of nowhere guiding me
back on point. At HIS we use historical trends as part
of our diligence to evaluate assets, neighborhoods,
one’s creditworthiness, ability to repay, business and
market cycles. Researching our history for this edition
identified an ugly historic pattern. Violent conflict
and elections are as much of our history as baseball,
hot dogs and apple pie. In fact, it’s been around as
long as the US has been in existence. 1804 Burr kills
Hamilton, the period from 1820’s up to 1860 saw a
substantial increase in “ethnic and religious diversity”
and tensions throughout the nation were fueled
by immigration and other social issues. Finally, the
deadliest conflict of all, the Civil War was sparked by
the refusal of southern states to accept the results
of the 1860 election. Personally, I can recall the 1968
Democratic National Convention when all hell broke
loose in Chicago. Racial tensions dividing us, citizens
striking out at law enforcement, and a flustered Mayor
Richard J Daley uttering the words “The confrontation
was not created by the police; the confrontation
was created by the people who charged the police.
Gentlemen, let’s get the thing straight, once and for
all. The policeman isn’t there to create disorder; the
policeman is there to preserve disorder”.
Fast forward to 2016 and though he will never be
confused with Abe Lincoln, President-elect Trump has
certainly incited violence and brought the integrity
of our elections into question. It is intriguing, as
well as, disappointing to realize that over 150 years
after “Bloody Monday” when 22 German and Irish
immigrants were killed and many more inured in an
Election Day riot in Louisville, Kentucky, we’ve reached
a similar tipping point and are still in disagreement
over how to resolve our differences. Perhaps this is the
time for the next step in our evolution as a society?