ZEMCH 2015 - International Conference Proceedings | Page 77

International Conference | Bari - Lecce, Italy Session I - II UNCERTAINTY EFFECTS OF INPUT DATA ON COST OPTIMAL NZEB PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS Seyedehmamak Salavatian1, Elisa Di Giuseppe1 & Marco D’Orazio1 1 Construction, Civil Engineering and Architecture Department, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Abstract According to EPBD recast 2010, all European member states have to set their national minimum energy performance requirements with a view to achieve cost-optimal levels following the delegated regulation No 244/2012 and normative EN 15459:2008. Although economic input data utilized for calculating future costs are based on statistical predictions and not definite, most of studies in this regard are based on a deterministic system that do not consider any randomness of parameters in global cost calculations. This paper aims to utilize EU suggested methodology on a representative apartment building in Italian context in order to evaluate effects of uncertainties in assumed economical input data on calculation results. In this study, twenty two wall envelope technologies were taken as design variables for acquiring primary energy needs and performing LCC calculations. By analyzing time series of main financial rates during recent years, their magnitude as well as marginal percentages were introduced and applied to the parameters by means of a of Monte Carlo based method; Then, amount of uncertainties for obtained results were quantified by means of statistical indicators and variation of possible output around base case values were figured out. Moreover, influence of individual input as well as combination scenarios were studied in a sensitivity analysis. Among studied parameters, Rp (Product price development rate) was identified as the most dominant stochastic parameter. Keywords Nearly zero energy building (nZEB), Building envelope, Cost benefit analysis, Uncertainty analysis, and Sensitivity analysis. 75