From our available choices, the initial priors break down as:
There is a 50 / 50 prior probability a god does or doesn’t exist.
There is a 50 / 50 probability if a god exists it is a multiplicity of gods or
a single god.
There is a 1 / 3 probability if it is a single god that it is Allah, YHWH, or
Jesus.
There is a 1 / 3 probability of choosing the right movement if it is Allah
or YHWH.
There is a 1 / 41,000 probability of choosing the right denomination if it
turns out to be Jesus.
So calculating our initial probability of being right before considering any
evidence:
Nonbelief
1 / 2 = .50 (50% chance of being right)
Islam
(1/2) * (1/2) * (1/3) * (1/3) = 0.02777777778 (2.77%
chance of being right)
Judaism
(1/2) * (1/2) * (1/3) * (1/3) = 0.02777777778 (2.77%
chance of being right)
Christianity
(1/2) * (1/2) * (1/3) * (1/41,000) =0.00000203252
(0.0002% chance of being right)
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