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different from those of Europe and
the United States. The E7 group of the
largest emerging market economies
(China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia,
Mexico, and Turkey) have begun to
dislodge the G7 (the U.S., the U.K.,
France, Germany, Japan, Canada, and
Italy) as the countries with the largest
shares of world trade. Russia, Turkey,
Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all have
market economies combined with
forms of governance that are different
from those in the West. The most
prominent example is China, which
proved that it could foster market-
style economic growth just as well as a
democratic country could (or, perhaps,
better). Enterprises in China made up
20 percent of the Fortune Global 500
in 2016.
The effects of globalization have been
felt unequally by different countries.
Thus, while still very interdependent,
the world has begun to fracture along
broad cultural lines — a point made
prominently by political scientist
Samuel Huntington. One consequence
of this is that globalization is more
difficult to sustain. Countries naturally
tend to focus on those more like
themselves. This is evident not only
in the political arena, but also in the
approach to business and the economy.
More than one version of a market
economy has emerged.
Technology has changed its trajectory
as well. We are moving from an
online world that has facilitated much
greater human interaction to one that
will enable things to communicate
with each other, and decisions to
be made with artificial intelligence.
In a recent global survey of CEOs
conducted by PwC (see Exhibit 8), the
vast majority of respondents said
robotics and machine intelligence
would significantly remove labor from
their workforce over the next few
years. The scale of information flow
and the speed of transmission have
also added to the strain felt by existing
institutions. These are not just Western
issues; a labor glut is likely to appear
in China and India as well. According
to the International Federation of
Robotics, quoted in the Economist in
March 2015, the public and private
sector in China purchased 20 percent
of all the robots made in 2013.
Regions such as sub-Saharan Africa
may be the hardest hit by the growing
reliance on automation and robotics.
They tend to have inadequate access
to technology, particularly electricity
and the Internet, and the further
disadvantage of a late start (see
Exhibit 9). By the time the African
workforce is ready to adapt to
industrialization, automation may have
taken away industrial jobs that, in
the past, have lifted other regions of
the world out of poverty. Since many
African countries have large youthful
populations, the end result could be
very challenging in civil terms, with the
possibility of even larger movements
of people, not just from Syria but
migrating from a variety of Middle
East and Central African countries.
Together, these trends have led to the
erosion of trust in mainstream global
institutions, including government,
business, the media, education, and
nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs). The 2017 Edelman Trust
Barometersurvey found that only 15
percent of the general-population
respondents believe the present system
is working; 53 percent do not and
32 percent are uncertain. Edelman
argues that the trust collapse has now
become a systemic threat. The claim
that “elites are out of touch” has struck
a chord. This rising polarization could
add fuel to nationalist and populist
movements. This may in turn lead to
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