EXPERT OPINION
Figure . 1 . Main global oil market figures , billions of USD decline in demand for oilfield services . In 2021-2022 , more stable oil prices should see oilfield services recover by 12.1 % and 3 % year on year , respectively .
Source : BP , EIU
The majority of major oil and gas companies are not planning to increase capital exploration and production costs in 2021 , and many projects affected in 2020 remain in the risk zone and if the current scenario for global oil market recovery plays out , they will be deferred until demand for hydrocarbons returns , i . e ., at the end of 2022 or the start of 2023 . Total
capital exploration and production costs in 2021-2025 will be 15-20 % lower than were planned before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic . In 2020 , the global oilfield service market dropped 25 % in value to 310 billion USD . By 2020 QIII and QIV , many oil and gas companies had already transitioned to oil prices of 40-45 USD per barrel , creating a swift
The link between oil prices and oilfield service financing shows that if the oil price reaches 53 USD per barrel in 2021 , the global oilfield service market will be worth 348 billion USD . It will only exceed the 400 billion USD mark if oil prices exceed 70 USD per barrel . The requirement to reallocate a part of capital costs to green technology to achieve sustainable development goals will also slow down oilfield service growth . On the whole , as with the post 2015-2016 crisis period , the global oilfield service market is unlikely to recover to pre-crisis levels , even in the long term .
Liquid hydrocarbon production in Kazakhstan
In 2020 , Kazakhstan agreed with OPEC + to reduce oil production by 23 % in July , 21 % – in August-September and 18 %
Figure . 2 . Capital exploration and production costs of major oil and gas companies for 2019 and 2020 , billions of USD
20,0 |
|
17,8 |
|
|
|
|
-50 % |
|
15,0
10,0
5,0
|
14,4 |
10,9 |
12,0 11,9 9,8 9,4 |
10,2
7,3
|
8,6
5,5
|
7,0
3,5
|
-40% -30% -20% -10% |
0,0 Exxon Mobil Chevron Rosneft BP Shell Total Eni
2019 2020 Change
0 %
Source : company reporting supported by EUROBAK
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