World Food Policy Volume/Issue 2-2/3-1 Fall 2015/Spring 2016 | Page 165

World Food Policy

Figure 10: Food Demand Compared to Agricultural Output in SSA, 2000–2030

against 111 million (26.2% of the
population) in 1980. The middle class is
composed by those who spend between
$2 and $20 per day (which is a very large
and imprecise definition).

Increased demand for livestock,
poultry, and fish is the largest driver in the
world food economy and is expected to
double by 2050, with 70% of the increase
coming from developing countries. As
grains and oilseeds are a major part of
animal diets and, accordingly, demand
for them will also grow substantially.

Income growth is leading to
dietary changes and rapid increases in the
amounts of processed and perishable foods
consumed. Households’ own production
will likely account for decreasing shares
of household consumption.

The current food demand gap is
significant, and will become much greater
taking in account the SSA population

growth rate, the increase of the number of
poor despite the increase of an emerging
middle class, unless SSA accelerates
productivity growth rates and succeeds
in alleviate its structural constraints.
Considerable Resources and Agricultural
Structural Constraints in SSA

SSA experiences an abundance of
agricultural resources (land and water)
and has a huge potential to produce
food staples, but these resources are
largely unexploited because of structural
constraints. Farming is largely done
under rainfed conditions. Levels of
irrigation are very low and make it
vulnerable to the changing climate.
Natural water supplies are abundant but
evenly distributed. SSA has not been able
to intensify its agricultural production
through irrigation and improved water

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