World Food Policy Volume 3, No. 2/Volume 4, No. 1, Fall16/Spring17 | Page 134

World Food Policy or less sophisticated methodologies. The central problem lies elsewhere, in the form of variables, the evolution of which must be monitored in order to identify if there is a resilience trajec- tory or not. As such, it seems relevant to take a local stakes-based approach that takes into account the diversity of local situations and communities. It involves identifying and monitoring over time what, locally, is the main is- sue (or the small number of issues) to buffer from shocks and which should be recovered, as a priority, following a shock. These local stakes will, as a re- sult, determine perceptions and guide practices in front of adversity (Lallau and Droy 2014). Resilience Horizons T his raises another major issue: how do you define a resilient Sa- helian household? This presents us with two problems. The first relates to the choice of a timeframe for observing “stake variables”. The second relates to the fact that risks are renewed and com- bined, shocks of different kinds are suc- cessive and cumulative, and the threat continues and influences practices after the shock itself; this is precisely what characterizes poverty: the scale and persistence of adversity experienced. This often prevents the identification of straightforward “event/response” type mechanisms, except perhaps in cases of rare extreme events. This makes it es- sential to address resilience in terms of trajectories. However, these trajectories must not be perceived as linear. On the contrary, this raises the question of discontinuities and the thresholds below or above which the nature of practices and processes would change. Once again, resilience adapts well to standard humanitarian frameworks, since two thresholds might make sense here: a destitution or survival thresh- old and a resilience threshold, close to the livelihood protection threshold used by HEA assessors. Below the first threshold, the household is trapped in a survival situation, and the stake variables are at crisis level. The second threshold corresponds to the situation on the basis of which the household can start building an autonomous mo- mentum to improve its living condi- tions and its capabilities, and which is not compromised by the least un- certainty. It manifests itself through levels judged to be satisfactory con- sidering what matters locally. Between these two thresholds, there is a pre- vailing form of resistance, dominat- ed by levels judged dissatisfactory of stake variables, and by defensive live- lihoods practices. Thinking in terms of thresholds allows aid to be directed, by highlighting the levers that enable households to cross them, by statisti- cally revealing resilience factors and vulnerability factors. The threshold analysis therefore has two levels. The first is static and requires us to distin- guish between two threshold values for each identified stake. The second is dynamic and involves studying how its values are combined and how they move, or do not move, from one state to another. 134