World Food Policy Volume 2, Number 1, Spring 2015 | Page 109

World Food Policy plank to food security is taking place in a region where the population continues to grow, placing ever-greater strain on environmental resources (Butler 2009a). The International Rice Research Institute estimates that “To keep rice prices stable and affordable at around $US300 a ton, an additional 8–10 million tons of rice needs to be produced every year. The challenge, above anything else, is to produce this additional rice with less land, less water, and less labor, in more efficient, environmentally-friendly production systems that are more resilient to climate change, among other factors” http://irri. org/index.php?option=com_ Three billion people rely on fish for 20 percent of their protein intake, and continued fish depletion will negatively impact on many lower-income countries and regions that depend on fish as a major source of dietary protein (FAO 2012a). Research suggests tropical fish catches could decrease by as much as 50 percent as a result of climate change, with South East Asia and the Pacific being the most adversely affected (FAO 2011a; 2012a). A comparative study investigated the vulnerability of 132 national economies to the impact of climate change on their fish capture. Findings from this study indicate that the majority of the most vulnerable countries are also the poorest and most of their inhabitants are twice as dependent upon fish for food as those in more affluent nations (Allison et al. 2009). The food security challenge here derives from the impacts of climate on the food supply and from the human security issues posed by erratic weather events, heat, and drought (see Climate Insecurities, Human Security and Social Resilience Report 2009). These conditions can result in areas becoming uninhabitable with subsequent wide scale people movements. A lack of international agreement on climate change mitigation approaches has significant repercussions for food security. Most modes of food production are fossil fuel dependent, and even where they are not (e.g., bio-dynamic cattle and sheep production systems) other food system features can contribute toward global warming, such as methane emissions generated by the enteric fermentation in beef cattle and sheep. 2.5 - The “cheap food” conundrum Among the important new strands of thinking and commentary is the extent to which industrial/corporate food systems can be health promoting given their current focus on calorific security through cheap processed foods rather than the delivery of affordable dietary diversity and nutritional security (WHO-FAO 2003; Monteiro and Cannon 2012). “Cheap food” is a relative notion, which varies across and within countries and refers to the proportion of household income spent on various foods as well as cost per kg or cost per kJ. In middle- and high-income countries, energy-dense and nutrient poor foods, high in salt, saturated fat and/or added sugar can be cheaper than healthier alternatives. As supermarkets displace fresh markets, consumers become exposed to larger amounts of cheaper processed foods and more expensive fresh foods (Hawkes 2008; Hawkes et al. 2010; Banwell et al. 2012). This disparity can result in households with low-income meeting (and often exceeding) their energy requirements using a lower proportion 108