World Food Policy Volume 2, Number 1, Spring 2015 | Page 10

Africa’s Structural Transformation Challenge and the Role of Agriculture

create—depending on the country—tens
of thousands of jobs whereas hundreds of
thousands of jobs or millions are required
annually. It means that the possible new
comparative cost advantages—which
will arise very progressively—are not
enough: heavy investments are needed
in infrastructure, training, and support
to businesses; and it will be impossible to
create millions of industrial jobs each year
in the near future to meet the demand for
jobs.8

This situation consolidates the
remaining role of agriculture and the rural
sector in the development of the continent.
In Africa, over the last five decades, food
production has essentially kept pace with
population and urban growth thanks to
the expansion of cultivated areas, but also
to higher yields. However, the gradual
decline in food production per capita,9
which is offset by imports, raises the
question of the capacity to respond to
population increase while the cultivated
area per worker is getting smaller due to
a growing rural population (Dorin 2013).
Growing imports have firstly answered
the urban demand. Nevertheless, if
African cities are heavily dependent on
international markets, their dependence
is mainly a concern for the supply of
cereals. Surveys in West Africa capital
cities in 2008 have demonstrated that food
expenditure is roughly divided into three
equal categories: cereals and starchy foods
(roots, tubers, and plantains); animal
products (meat, fish, dairy, and eggs); and

products for sauce (vegetables, pulses, oils,
fruits, sugar, and condiments). For the
latter two categories and also for starchy
foods, local products are predominant
(Bricas 2013).

Based on these results and going
back to the demographic prospects, the
characteristics of the African population
growth will give huge opportunities
for the agriculture of the continent, for
African farmers, and African food chains.
Between 2015 and 2050, the continent
will gain 1.2 billion new consumers and
the progressive urbanization—even if
relatively slower than in other regions
of the world—will change the urban/
rural population ratio (U/R) which is a
proxy for the market potential for African
farmers. While U/R is 0.6 today, the ratio
will double and reac h 1.2 in 2050: this is
a dramatic pull factor for agriculture and
a huge incentive for developing farming
activities and agro-processing.

These existing trends raise however
the strategic question of identifying the
most appropriate development model for
agriculture in Africa. New investments
by new players promoting large-scale
farming (Anseeuw et al. 2012) have
reopened the old “small versus large
scale” debate about the relative merits of
different sizes and types of farms. This
risky discussion—which could result in
adopting inappropriate modernization
pathways—tends to obscure a central
issue: the need to increase production,
while creating employment in agriculture,

8

In the case of China, the “township and villages enterprises” policy, which was the backbone of rural
industrialization, is an interesting yardstick: between the 1960s, when the policy was initiated, and the
1990s a maximum of 135 million jobs were created (Vendryes 2012).
9
Plant-based food production per capita declined by almost 0.1% per year between 1970 and 2007.

9