WORLD ECONOMIC JOURNAL
Bitcoin price fluctuations from Jan . 1 to Aug . 15 , 2024
Source : Tradingview
ARE CYCLES STILL THERE ?
Despite the volatility observed in 2024 , most industry experts continue to support the validity of the market cycle theory for cryptocurrencies .
• Impact of halving : The key argument remains that the April 2024 Bitcoin halving will have a delayed but significant positive effect on prices , as in previous cycles .
• Supportive regulations and increased institutional adoption are expected to attract new types of investors to the market , leading to a gradual rise in prices .
• Technological enhancements will have beneficial effects on the infrastructure , such as the Lightning Network for Bitcoin .
Some analysts , though in the minority , point to factors that could delay or alter the expected bull cycle . Cryptocurrency market cycles could lengthen as the market matures , they argue , with less spectacular but more sustained long-term growth . Bitcoin growth could be more gradual , far from the explosive peaks of previous cycles .
In addition , macroeconomic uncertainty , with risks of a global recession and geopolitical tensions , could keep volatility high and delay the formation of a sustainable bull market .
SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE
Fueled by the aforementioned positive factors , the cryptocurrency market could experience a substantial recovery this year . In this optimistic scenario , Bitcoin could surpass $ 100,000 by the end of 2024 , leading to a price increase for major altcoins ( Ethereum , Solana , etc .).
In a conservative scenario , the market could remain volatile , with regular ups and downs , without reaching the expected highs . Bitcoin could stabilise between $ 60,000 and $ 70,000 by the end of 2024 . This scenario assumes that macroeconomic uncertainty persists , but cryptocurrency adoption continues to grow — slowly , but surely .
Pessimists point out several external factors that could lead to a significant drop in cryptocurrency prices . A prolonged global economic recession , major geopolitical tensions or unexpected regulatory tightening , in particular , could lead to such an outcome . In this context , investors might flee risky assets , including cryptocurrencies , in favour of safer havens like gold or government bonds .
Under this scenario , Bitcoin could fall below $ 30,000 before finding solid support . Altcoins , often more volatile , could see even steeper declines , with a reduction in their total market capitalization . Though not the most probable , this remains a plausible scenario , especially in a context where global markets are highly interconnected and sensitive to external shocks .
CONCLUSION
In my opinion , the fundamentals supporting crypto assets remain strong , despite the mixed performance of the cryptocurrency market in 2024 . Bitcoin , along with other major cryptocurrencies , continues to benefit from growing adoption by both institutions and individuals .
Market cycles remain an essential feature of the sector , and while 2024 may have defied the expectations of some investors , it would be premature to conclude that this year ’ s evolutions have ended or even seriously challenged the cycle theory .
Most industry professionals continue to believe in the potential for a future bull run , even if its timing might differ from initial expectations . The scenarios described above highlight the need for investors to stay vigilant and well-informed , ready to adapt to the rapid changes that characterise this market . Cryptocurrencies still represent an emerging asset class with considerable growth potential , but they require an informed and cautious investment approach .
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