White Papers Uncertainty is Clouding the Energy Trading Outlook | Page 2

INTRODUCTION THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS ARE UNDERGOING AN UNPRECEDENTED PERIOD OF NEAR UNRELENTING CHANGE, AS TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONS, REGULATION AND GEOPOLITICAL UPHEAVAL ARE SHIFTING THE FULCRUM UNDER THE ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE. FOR ENERGY COMMODITY PRODUCERS, TRADERS, AND CONSUMERS THE IMPLICATION OF THESE CHANGES IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MARKET UNCERTAINTY. A s the United States continues to rapidly grow its production of oil and gas from shale, and Canada increases production from its oil-rich tar sands, these new volumes are helping to support world oil markets as crude production outside the US declines due to increasing conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. Should these conflicts widen, the global markets will be increasingly volatile as supply disruptions outpace the growth in North American production. Though US natural gas production has not yet impacted the global market space via LNG exports, there is no doubt that those exports will happen. While the impact on US prices is unclear at this time, these exports will be yet another variable with which to content in a US market already unsettled by increasing regulations that will, by design, reshape the US energy mix. Dealing with this uncertainty will require increasing market vigilance, with a constant view on both the near and longterm energy outlook, and supported by a commodity trading and risk management solution that facilitates analytics, market visibility and regulatory compliance, such as Eka Energy.