won, the total number of registered voters was 131M out of which 76 % were white. Obama garnered 43 % from the White voters, 95 % Black, 67 % Latino, and 62 % Asian. This simply shows one cannot win without a sizeable white vote no matter how diverse America is becoming. The minority voters simply tip the scale depending on their turnout and distribution. Furthermore, in this election, Kamala received 41 % of the White votes according to Investigative Post on November 10th 2024. It is important to note that the numbers are still being dissected and there could be slight changes going forward.
When it comes to the issue of gender, Hilary won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.8 million votes according to Wikipedia. In fact, Bill Clinton appearing on CBS TV, 21st Nov 2024 thinks that America has been ready for a woman President since 2008‘ though a conservative Republican stands a better chance than a Democrat.’ So it’ s the party not the gender of the candidate.
Let’ s get to the heart of the article by asking; what went horribly wrong? If I could summarise it in one sentence I would say;‘ wrong candidate, backed by the wrong Party, at the wrong time, all while facing a battle-hardened, cantankerous, difficult to fathom, often underrated, hard hitting giant of an opponent’. Some of the reasons, in hindsight, seem obvious while others, like an iceberg lurking ominously beneath the surface, are hidden from plain sight.
For context, let us briefly examine the magnitude of Trump’ s win as there are debates whether it was a‘ landslide’ for those who want to split hairs and give themselves some comfort. To those unfamiliar with the Electoral College system, and focusing on the popular vote, it would seem that the race was close. Yes he only‘ won by 2.5 Million votes’ according to BBC, but that’ s beside the point for one can win the popular vote, like Hilary did in 2016 yet Trump won the election. So focusing on the popular vote is missing the significance of his win by a mile. He carried the Electoral College votes by 86, that is 312 to 226 and though the margins may have been slim that’ s beside the point. In many respects therefore it was a resounding win for Trump and I will give my reasons.
To begin with, Trump swept all the swing states of Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. This, in effect, means that Kamala had no path to victory. Secondly, in winning the popular vote, though by less than 50 %, he becomes the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004, to do so. In addition, he carried both the House and the Senate giving him a large measure of control to push through his agenda. He also he made unprecedented inroads into hitherto Democratic territory by gaining sizeable votes among the Latinos, young voters, especially those voting for the first time, and African Americans, unlike any other Republican candidate in recent times. Even in the bluest of Blue States of California, Illinois and New York Trump penetrated gaining an average of 5 percentage points. It is no wonder he confidently put it thus, " This is a magnificent victory for the American people who have given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate to make America great again," as he fully understood the significance of his triumph. This came from a candidate who is a convicted felon and survived two assassination attempts, both as we shall see were‘ divine interventions.’
My second headline is that Kamala’ s loss should not be in vain and I now turn to my five key takeaways, viewed through the lens of a marketer. These invaluable insights can be valuable for market development- whether entering a new market, launching a new product, or rebranding, as they are essentially forms of electioneering and campaigning.
Take Home One: Watch the Terrain with a Microscope and Even Telescope
Simply put keep a very close eye and ear on the‘ ground’ and accurately decipher the signals. Using a telescope had the Democrat team looked yonder to other countries that had held elections in the last three years, in this post Covid-19 era we are in, they would have noticed an emerging and disturbing pattern. The last three years have proved a tough time for any ruling party, or incumbent candidate trying to facing a re-election. Many have lost or had their numbers in their respective houses such as the legislature clipped. This has held true in Kenya, UK, Japan, Australia, France, S. Africa, and S. Korea. Fareed Zakaria explains this in his November 10th, 2024, programme GPS aired on CNN. Simply being an incumbent stacks the odds against the candidate. Talk about being on the wrong side of time. One of the factors contributing to this scenario can be summarised by the simple phrase,‘ It’ s the economy stupid’ coined by James Carville, Bill Clinton’ s chief strategist during the 1992 campaign when the US was experiencing a recession. The phrase was widely used by President Clinton in his successful presidential bid, against George H. W. Bush.
So why are so many countries experiencing such tough economic times? The answer is simple; we are still experiencing the 2020 Covid-19 hangover. In my assessment, Covid-19 played a key part in removing Trump from the White House and has in a twist of irony or fate put him back in. Trump’ s last year of Presidency, 2020, happened to be an election year. It was the year the world was hit by Covid-19. A time of death, fear, and given that it was unprecedented we had no playbook to guide us, there was paralysis. The containment measures of lockdowns, social distancing, and isolation took a heavy toll on the service industry globally. The service industry is the largest employer globally and contributes the most to GDP in the majority of economies. According to WTO, the service industry employs 50 % of the work force worldwide and accounts for 67 % of its GDP. In the USA it accounts for 78 % of the GDP and in Kenya 55 % according to Statista.
Therefore, any negative impact on this industry hits the economies hard and as we have witnessed it took a long time for the wheels to start turning again and today we are still suffering the aftershocks.
President Trump initially did not handle the Covid-19 pandemic well, dismissing it as a passing cloud, thus delaying taking substantive action that might have affected the economy, that would have slowed its spread. However, in March 2020, he introduced the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security( CARES) Act. This legislation provided Economic Impact Payments of up to $ 1,200 per adult for eligible individuals and $ 500 per qualifying child under 17, aiming to stimulate the economy by encouraging spending. Despite this, only 42 % of recipients used the money for immediate spending, while 27 % saved it, and 31 % used it to pay off debts. The limited spending was partly due to lockdowns restricting access to goods and services, as well as fear of contracting the virus.
When President Biden came into office in 2021, he hit the ground running as Covid-19 was still alive and present ravaging the economy, and he put in place the American Rescue Plan 2021, which pumped USD 1.9 Trillion into the economy. So in a very short time, a lot of money was pumped into the economy, not backed by economic activity.
Now, here is where it gets interesting. As Covid-19 eased due to vaccination and herd immunity, people could move again and spend as they wished. As restrictions were eased and given the pent-up demand people went out to spend. However they