2016 to only 13 million m3 in 2022 (see chart). This downward trend continued in the 1Q/23 when lumber shipments were down 20% y-o-y, while they held steady in the rest of the country.
The outlook for tighter lumber supply in North America could strengthen lumber prices in the US in the second half of 2023 and create opportunities to ramp up sawmill production levels somewhat, particularly in British Columbia. However, there may be constraints in the availability of sawlogs because of limitations in accessing the provincial forests during the fire season.
The US relies on about 30% of imported lumber to meet the country's wood consumption. Historically, Canadian sawmills have supplied 90-97% of the import volume, but in recent years the flow from Canada has declined because of the reduced production in British Columbia. On the other hand, European sawmills have increased their market shares to about 15% in 2023, up from just a few percent five years ago. With limited opportunities for Canada to increase lumber production, European sawmills will likely remain essential suppliers for the US wood market in the coming decade.
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NOVEMBER 2023