FEBRUARY 2019
rates further dampened the housing market, with the effects of Chinese tariffs also in play.
Delacy is optimistic for a more normal lumber market in 2019. "I think we are going to see things stabilize this year," he said.
Dan Bouchard of BP Wood, however, expressed concern that volatility might still be at play in 2019. He noted the shrinking lumber supply base in BC, with mills struggling to keep their log decks "wooded up" as log availability declines. He noted that BC mills have been running at full throttle to process as much beetle infested timber while it still remains viable to do so, but that time is coming to a close. Forest fires have also played a major role, he noted, in not only destroying forests, but also in impeding logging. BC's record setting 2017 fire season was exceeded by that of 2018.
"By next year, BC will be down five or six major sawmills," he noted, stressing that significant supply will be removed from the market.
Don’t expect any WTO decisions until fall at the earliest, and then appeals process. Dont’ expect anything this year.
Leaner inventories. Less speculative. Lean pipeline, so prices can really react quickly. And the wild card is China. If things slow, then more low grade will head south. Could be another year of erratic pricing.
Lumber Panel: The Up's and Down's of Low Grade. Left to right are Annie Montey (moderator) with Dan Bouchard, Mark Mitchell, Kelly DeLacy, Rod Lucas and Tod Kintz.