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moves to ensure that government does not impede progress by industry.
In 2018, the single most important thing that will impact federal legislation is the fact that it is an election year
“New regulations...essentially have ground to a halt,” noted Paul, for several reasons. One is that a lot of positions at federal agencies are yet to be filled by presidential appointment because Democrats have taken the maximum amount of time for the approval process. Another reason, of course, are the policies being put into place by the White House. “Overall, there’s been an aggressive pursuit to identify outdated, duplicative, and just unnecessary regulations...and then roll back these different rulemakings,” said Paul. “And that’s been good for business.”
Obamacare, and Republican efforts and debate to scuttle the signature of former President Barack Obama, consumed much of last year’s session of Congress noted Paul -- time that could have been spent productively working on other legislation. What Congress likely will be remembered for in 2017 was passage of tax reform that reduced taxes for businesses and individuals.
In 2018, the single most important thing that will impact federal legislation is the fact that it is an election year. All seats are in the House of Representatives are up for election as well as a good number in the Senate. All the action Congress takes this year will be made with an eye on the November elections, said Paul.
There already are signs the November elections may not treat Republicans very kindly. There has been infighting in the GOP, and a number of sitting members of Congress have announced their retirement. “That’s going to create more competitive seats,” said Paul. Some recent projections have 40 seats in the House being flipped to Democrats. “We could be looking at a drastically different 2019,” said Paul. Republicans and Democrats alike will base their decisions on how they can position themselves to their constituents and the media to get elected.
One of the disheartening things about the legislative process, and for lobbyists, is the petty politics that thwarts legislation, said Paul. Democrats try to maneuver to block Republican initiatives because they don’t want to hand the GOP a victory. Republicans engage in the same behavior because they don’t want Democrats to get the spotlight.
When you consider the large volume of legislation that is introduced, and the few pieces that Congress passes, “The numbers are staggering,” said Paul. The average bill that passes is nothing more than naming a post office, he said.
“Nothing’s really ever new,” said Paul. The few pieces of legislation that do pass are consent resolutions, mammoth bills that incorporate language from other, smaller bills that failed. “Often it’s a really long game,” he observed.
Despite the news that dominates the headlines, a lot of legislative work is done behind the scenes. It’s the job of lobbyists to find out what is happening and report back to their clients and identify opportunities for engagement with federal lawmakers and officials.
February will be dominated by the federal budget, he predicted. Republicans want to avoid a government shutdown because it would be viewed unfavorably in the November elections.