deaths. In 2017, 58 out of every 100,000
West Virginians died of drug misuse,
a rate that is nearly triple the national
figure. This affects economic develop-
ment in a similar way as poor education
outcomes: if potential businesses find
it difficult to identify workers who are
healthy and drug free, they are going to
be disinclined to move to or expand their
business in West Virginia.
Population and Migration
In studying the human capital challenge
in West Virginia, the team at the Bureau of
Business and Economic Research (BBER)
at West Virginia University has reviewed
the education, drug abuse and health ele-
ments as well as population and migration
trends. The movement of people—especially
working-age people—is also important
in explaining labor force participation.
By examining how demographic patterns
evolve, the BBER is more likely to obtain
a better sense of where potential businesses
might be able to find an appropriate work-
force and therefore identify which regions
in the state potential businesses might be
more attracted to.
Overall, West Virginia’s population has
aged significantly over recent decades with
high growth among the elderly popula-
tion and virtually no growth in the prime
working age population. The state’s East-
ern Panhandle region is the clear outlier
among the state’s various regions in that
it has exhibited tremendous growth in
recent decades, far surpassing national
population growth. North Central West
Virginia is the only other region in West
Virginia to record population growth since
1980. Population growth in these regions
is driven by both positive net migration
and natural population growth, which is
when births exceed deaths. West Virginia
is consistently observing natural population
decline where births fall short of deaths
with the exception of these two regions.
In- and out-migration have also been
volatile. Only the North Central and
Eastern Panhandle regions have received
substantial positive net migration flows in
recent years. North Central West Virginia
receives by far the largest number of net
in-migrants from within West Virginia
while the Eastern Panhandle receives by
far the largest number of net in-migrants
from other states.
Improving Labor Force Participation
What would it mean for West Virginia’s
economy if the state found effective ways
to increase labor force participation? To
answer this question, the team at the
BBER estimated the resulting long-run
economic impacts from only a hypo-
thetical 1-percentage-point increase in
the labor force participation rate based
on what are believed to be reasonable
assumptions related to the time frame
involved and the share of those entrants
into the labor force who actually find jobs.
A 1-percentage-point increase in labor
force participation would only eliminate
one-ninth of the gap between West Virginia
and the nation, so this would not be a
Herculean effort. According to the BBER’s
estimates, bringing West Virginia men and
women into the labor force so the rate
improves by only 1 percentage point—
and assuming only half of the men and
women who enter the labor force ac-
tually obtain employment—this action
would yield an increase of 11,000 jobs
and more than $900 million in economic
output annually.
These numbers indicate that this idea
of increasing labor force participation by
a single percentage point deserves serious
attention. This information should inspire
leaders across the state to push as hard as
possible to find more effective ways to get
more of West Virginia’s men and women
into the workforce to make the state more
attractive to potential businesses and more
prosperous in the long run.
West Virginia Labor Force and Labor Force Participation Forecast
820
Labor Force (Thousand)
Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR, %)
57
810 56
800 55
LFPR
790
Labor Force
780 53
770 52
760 51
750
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics and BBER Economic Forecast
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2020
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