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OIL & GAS
Libya
Power and stability remain a running theme through
the Middle East and North Africa. Libya, an OPEC
member and itself destabilised, produces petroleum
and natural gas. In 2015 the country’s petroleum
exports were valued at $4.98Billiom, and it produced
more than 403,000 barrels per day of crude and
about 15.49Million cubic meters of gas.
Buonomo says that the US could align itself with
Egypt and Russia to back Libya’s Gen. Khalifa Haftar
instead of supporting the UN-backed reconciliation
process which leads to a more stable Libya, though
this is in the shorter term.
A more sustainable solution would require cultivating
‘democratic and tolerant cultures and institutions’
acting in Libya’s interest as opposed to ‘on behalf of
a narrow, corrupt and repressive elite.’
Iran
The Trump administration is currently highly focused on
combating extremist threats on US soil and containing any
nuclear threats from Iran.
In Buonomo’s eyes ‘constructive diplomatic engagement’
between the US and Iran is vital for broad regional stability
but the engagement remains unlikely. One of the hindrances
to the regions’ stability is Iran’s view of Israel. In his webinar
presentation, Buonomo said that Iran’s leader has been
‘consistently hostile to the continued existence of the State
of Israel, despite “secretly” communicating willingness to
discuss the issue with the U.S in May 2003.’
The network of pipelines and oil refineries in Libya,
Iran Saudi Arabia and Algeria always a target
Other countries in the Middle East and North Africa at risk
for declines and disruptions this year include Saudi Arabia,
Iraq and Algeria.
Saudi Arabia
There is a chess game between Saudi Arabia and Iran as
Iran’s Supreme Leader seeks to take advantage of the
conflict in Yemen to pursue his longstanding ambition to
topple the Saudi monarchy. Saudi Arabia is responding
to persistent ballistic missile attacks within its territory
by Yemeni rebel forces, as well as other Iranian actions
perceived to threaten the kingdom.
‘Political infighting in Baghdad’ and bitterness between
Shia and Sunni Muslims even as it battles Islamic state
noting this could reverberate on oil production and
exports in the south.
Algeria
The country, a founding member of OPEC, had about $54.4Billion in petroleum
exports in 2015, according to the organization’s fact page.
Buonomo pointed out that Algeria shored up larger financial reserves in
anticipation of the oil price downturn, and could remain a long-term producer
thanks to “substantial” gas reserves and fairly cheap oil production costs
even as it faces a future power vacuum. The country is diversifying its energy
by developing renewables, sensing “a global shift in this direction, as well as
a rising domestic consumption of energy resources it could profit more by
exporting” he said
WATTS UP MAGAZINE APR - MAY 2017
53